Forecasting SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamic in Poland with the pDyn agent-based model.

We employ pDyn (derived from "pandemics dynamics"), an agent-based epidemiological model, to forecast the fourth wave of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, primarily driven by the Delta variant, in Polish society. The model captures spatiotemporal dynamics of the epidemic spread, predicting disease-related states based on pathogen properties and behavioral factors. We assess pDyn's validity, encompassing pathogen variant succession, immunization level, and the proportion of vaccinated among confirmed cases.

Chaos in Opinion-Driven Disease Dynamics.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, it became evident that the effectiveness of applying intervention measures is significantly influenced by societal acceptance, which, in turn, is affected by the processes of opinion formation. This article explores one among the many possibilities of coupled opinion-epidemic systems. The findings reveal either intricate periodic patterns or chaotic dynamics, leading to substantial fluctuations in opinion distribution and, consequently, significant variations in the total number of infections over time.

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations.

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022.