Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature-dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe.

A warmer climate may increase the risk of attacks by insect pests on agricultural crops, and questions on how to adapt management practice have created a need for impact models. Phenological models driven by climate data can be used for assessing the potential distribution and voltinism of different insect species, but the quality of the simulations is influenced by a range of uncertainties. In this study, we model the temperature-dependent activity and development of the Colorado potato beetle, and analyse the influence of uncertainty associated with parameterization of temperature and day length response.