Emergent constraints on future Amazon climate change-induced carbon loss using past global warming trends.

Reducing uncertainty in the response of the Amazon rainforest, a vital component of the Earth system, to future climate change is crucial for refining climate projections. Here we demonstrate an emergent constraint (EC) on the future response of the Amazon carbon cycle to climate change across CMIP6 Earth system models. Models that overestimate past global warming trends, tend to estimate hotter and drier future Amazon conditions, driven by northward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone over the Atlantic Ocean, causing greater Amazon carbon loss.

Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives.

Recent climate modeling studies have concluded that cumulative carbon emissions determine temperature increase, regardless of emission pathways. Accordingly, the optimal emission pathway can be determined from a socioeconomic standpoint. To access the path dependence of socioeconomic impacts for cumulative carbon emissions, we used a computable general equilibrium model to analyze impacts on major socioeconomic indicators on a global scale for 30-50 pathways with different emission reduction starting years, different subsequent emission pathways, and three different cumulative 2100 emission scenarios (emissions that meet the 2 °C target, the 2 °C target emissions plus 10 %, and emissions producing radiative forcing of 4.

Predicting outbreaks: a spatial risk assessment of West Nile virus in British Columbia.

Background: West Nile virus (WNv) has recently emerged as a health threat to the North American population. After the initial disease outbreak in New York City in 1999, WNv has spread widely and quickly across North America to every contiguous American state and Canadian province, with the exceptions of British Columbia (BC), Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland. In this study we develop models of mosquito population dynamics for Culex tarsalis and C.