A tale of two recession-derivative indicators.

Two recession-derivative indicators (RDIs) have been used extensively as forecast objects in business cycle prediction, . (1) the target variable takes value 1 if there is a recession starting exactly at a specific horizon in the future, and (2) the target variable takes value 1 if there is a recession starting any time over a specified period in the future. Using daily yield spread as an illustrative predictor, we formally and quantitatively compare the two RDIs using the receiver operating characteristics analysis.

ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads.

Even though many studies have established the existence of structural breaks and declining predictability in the relationship between GDP growth and yield spreads, business analysts continue to watch for the inversion of the spread as one of the leading indicators for recessions. We use the Receiving Operating Characteristics (ROC) approach, to reevaluate the enduring power of spread to forecast recessions, notwithstanding the temporal instabilities. We identify the value of the spread that produces the highest discriminatory power as measured by different functionals of the ROC curve e.

Effects of Psychiatric Disorders on Labor Market Outcomes: A Latent Variable Approach Using Multiple Clinical Indicators.

In this paper, we estimate the effect of psychiatric disorders on labor market outcomes using a structural equation model with a latent index for mental illness, an approach that acknowledges the continuous nature of psychiatric disability. We also address the potential endogeneity of mental illness using an approach proposed by Lewbel (2012) that relies on heteroscedastic covariance restrictions rather than questionable exclusion restrictions for identification. Data come from the US National Comorbidity Survey - Replication and the National Latino and Asian American Study.

EXAMINING THE EDUCATION GRADIENT IN CHRONIC ILLNESS.

We examine the education gradient in diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol. We take into account diagnosed as well as undiagnosed cases, and use methods accounting for the possibility of unmeasured factors that are correlated with education and drive both the likelihood of having illness and the propensity to be diagnosed. Data come from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2012.

Testing the Value of Probability Forecasts for Calibrated Combining.

We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have "value", as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981).

Fetal growth and neurobehavioral outcomes in childhood.

Using a sample of sibling pairs from a nationally representative U.S. survey, we examine the effects of the fetal growth rate on a set of neurobehavioral outcomes in childhood measured by parent-reported diagnosed developmental disabilities and behavior problems.

Birth weight and academic achievement in childhood.

Research has shown that birth weight has a lasting impact on later-life outcomes such as educational attainment and earnings. This paper examines the role of health at birth in determining academic achievement in childhood, which may provide the link between birth weight and adult outcomes. Using three waves of the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics data over 1997-2007, we build on the literature by employing the fetal growth rate as a proxy for net nutritional intake in utero and propose a nested error-component two-stage least squares estimator that draws on internal instruments from alternative dimensions of the multilevel panel data set.

Identifying the mechanisms for workplace burden of psychiatric illness.

Background: Although previous research indicates that mental disorders detract from labor market outcomes, little is known about which psychiatric symptoms are most important.

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify the mechanisms, or most important symptoms, through which psychiatric disorders affect labor market outcomes. We focus on major depressive episode, panic attack, social phobia, and generalized anxiety disorder.

Beware of being unaware: racial/ethnic disparities in chronic illness in the USA.

We study racial/ethnic disparities in awareness of chronic diseases using biomarker data from the 2006 Health and Retirement Study. We explore two alternative definitions of awareness and estimate a trivariate probit model with selection, which accounts for common, unmeasured factors underlying the following: (1) self-reporting chronic disease; (2) participating in biomarker collection; and (3) having disease, conditional on participating in biomarker collection. Our findings suggest that current estimates of racial/ethnic disparities in chronic disease are sensitive to selection, and also to the definition of disease awareness used.

The dynamics of income-related health inequality among American children.

We estimate and decompose income-related inequality in child health in the USA and analyze its dynamics using the recently introduced health mobility index. Data come from the 1997, 2002, and 2007 waves of the Child Development Supplement of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The findings show that income-related child health inequality remains stable as children grow up and enter adolescence.

Racial/ethnic- and education-related disparities in the control of risk factors for cardiovascular disease among individuals with diabetes.

Objective: There is limited information on whether recent improvements in the control of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among individuals with diabetes have been concentrated in particular sociodemographic groups. This article estimates racial/ethnic- and education-related disparities and examines trends in uncontrolled CVD risk factors among adults with diabetes. The main racial/ethnic comparisons made are with African Americans versus non-Latino whites and Mexican Americans versus non-Latino whites.