Publications by authors named "Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst"
Analysis of climate policy scenarios has become an important tool for identifying mitigation strategies, as shown in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report. The key outcomes of these scenarios differ substantially not only because of model and climate target differences but also because of different assumptions on behavioural, technological and socio-economic developments. A comprehensive attribution of the spread in climate policy scenarios helps policymakers, stakeholders and scientists to cope with large uncertainties in this field.
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- Benefit-cost analyses of climate policies often show conflicting results due to regional differences and inequality, which are not fully addressed in current models.
- A new benefit-cost model divides the world into over 50 regions and incorporates detailed economic data to evaluate how countries act alone versus in cooperation.
- Findings indicate that without global cooperation, temperature rises will occur, but cooperation can help meet Paris Agreement targets; however, economic inequality remains a significant issue, exacerbated by climate change effects.
Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-economic developments, climate system uncertainty, damage estimates, mitigation costs and discount rates. Here, we develop a meta-model that disentangles the uncertainties of these factors using full literature ranges.
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