GrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models.

Simple dynamic modeling tools can help generate real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbreaks. An easy-to-use and flexible toolbox for this purpose is lacking. This tutorial-based primer introduces and illustrates GrowthPredict, a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using phenomenological dynamic growth models based on ordinary differential equations.

A MATLAB toolbox to fit and forecast growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models: Application to epidemic outbreaks.

Background: Simple dynamic modeling tools can be useful for generating real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbreaks. An easy-to-use and flexible toolbox for this purpose is lacking.

Results: In this tutorial-based primer, we introduce and illustrate a user-friendly MATLAB toolbox for fitting and forecasting time-series trajectories using phenomenological dynamic growth models based on ordinary differential equations.

A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics.

Background: As climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change become more prevalent, public health authorities can expect to face an expanding spectrum of vector-borne diseases with increasing incidence and geographical spread. Common interventions include the use of larvicides and adulticides, as well as targeted communications to increase public awareness regarding the need for personal protective measures, such as mosquito repellant, protective clothing, and mosquito nets. Here, we propose a simplified compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease dynamics that incorporates the use of personal protection against mosquito bites influenced by two key individual-level behavioral drivers-concern for being bitten by mosquitos as a nuisance and concern for mosquito-borne disease transmission.

An ensemble n-sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

We analyze an ensemble of n-sub-epidemic modeling for forecasting the trajectory of epidemics and pandemics. These ensemble modeling approaches, and models that integrate sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics, have demonstrated powerful forecasting capability. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes.

An ensemble -sub-epidemic modeling framework for short-term forecasting epidemic trajectories: Application to the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

Unlabelled: We analyze an ensemble of -sub-epidemic modeling for forecasting the trajectory of epidemics and pandemics. These ensemble modeling approaches, and models that integrate sub-epidemics to capture complex temporal dynamics, have demonstrated powerful forecasting capability. This modeling framework can characterize complex epidemic patterns, including plateaus, epidemic resurgences, and epidemic waves characterized by multiple peaks of different sizes.