From SIR to SEAIRD: A novel data-driven modeling approach based on the Grey-box System Theory to predict the dynamics of COVID-19.

Unlabelled: Common compartmental modeling for COVID-19 is based on a priori knowledge and numerous assumptions. Additionally, they do not systematically incorporate asymptomatic cases. Our study aimed at providing a framework for data-driven approaches, by leveraging the strengths of the grey-box system theory or grey-box identification, known for its robustness in problem solving under partial, incomplete, or uncertain data.