Risk of travel-related cases of Zika virus infection is predicted by transmission intensity in outbreak-affected countries.

Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is emerging globally, currently causing outbreaks in the Caribbean, and Central and South America, and putting travellers to affected countries at risk. Model-based estimates for the basic reproduction number (R ) of ZIKV in affected Caribbean and Central and South American countries, obtained from 2015 to 2016 human case surveillance data, were compared by logistic regression and Receiver-Operating Characteristic (ROC), with the prevalence of ZIKV-positive test results in Canadians who travelled to them.

Results: Estimates of R for each country were a good predictor of the ZIKV test result (ROC area under the curve = 0.