Prediction and surveillance of influenza epidemics.

Objective: To describe the use of surveillance and forecasting models to predict and track epidemics (and, potentially, pandemics) of influenza.

Methods: We collected 5 years of historical data (2005-2009) on emergency department presentations and hospital admissions for influenza-like illnesses (International Classification of Diseases [ICD-10-AM] coding) from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) database of 27 Queensland public hospitals. The historical data were used to generate prediction and surveillance models, which were assessed across the 2009 southern hemisphere influenza season (June-September) for their potential usefulness in informing response policy.