Thermal optima in the hypoxia tolerance of marine ectotherms: Physiological causes and biogeographic consequences.

The minimum O2 needed to fuel the demand of aquatic animals is commonly observed to increase with temperature, driven by accelerating metabolism. However, recent measurements of critical O2 thresholds ("Pcrit") reveal more complex patterns, including those with a minimum at an intermediate thermal "optimum". To discern the prevalence, physiological drivers, and biogeographic manifestations of such curves, we analyze new experimental and biogeographic data using a general dynamic model of aquatic water breathers.

Geographical and taxonomic patterns in aerobic traits of marine ectotherms.

The metabolism and hypoxia tolerance of marine ectotherms play key roles in limiting species geographical ranges, but underlying traits have only been directly measured for a small fraction of biodiversity. Here we diagnose and analyse spatial and phylogenetic patterns in hypoxia tolerance and its temperature sensitivity at ecologically active metabolic rates, by combining a model of organismal oxygen (O) balance with global climate and biogeographic data for approximately 25 000 animal species from 13 phyla. Large-scale spatial trait patterns reveal that active hypoxia tolerance is greater and less temperature sensitive among tropical species compared to polar ones, consistent with sparse experimental data.

Impact of warming on aquatic body sizes explained by metabolic scaling from microbes to macrofauna.

Rising temperatures are associated with reduced body size in many marine species, but the biological cause and generality of the phenomenon is debated. We derive a predictive model for body size responses to temperature and oxygen (O) changes based on thermal and geometric constraints on organismal O supply and demand across the size spectrum. The model reproduces three key aspects of the observed patterns of intergenerational size reductions measured in laboratory warming experiments of diverse aquatic ectotherms (i.

Avoiding ocean mass extinction from climate warming.

Global warming threatens marine biota with losses of unknown severity. Here, we quantify global and local extinction risks in the ocean across a range of climate futures on the basis of the ecophysiological limits of diverse animal species and calibration against the fossil record. With accelerating greenhouse gas emissions, species losses from warming and oxygen depletion alone become comparable to current direct human impacts within a century and culminate in a mass extinction rivaling those in Earth's past.

Metabolic trait diversity shapes marine biogeography.

Climate and physiology shape biogeography, yet the range limits of species can rarely be ascribed to the quantitative traits of organisms. Here we evaluate whether the geographical range boundaries of species coincide with ecophysiological limits to acquisition of aerobic energy for a global cross-section of the biodiversity of marine animals. We observe a tight correlation between the metabolic rate and the efficacy of oxygen supply, and between the temperature sensitivities of these traits, which suggests that marine animals are under strong selection for the tolerance of low O (hypoxia).

Climate-driven aerobic habitat loss in the California Current System.

Climate warming is expected to intensify hypoxia in the California Current System (CCS), threatening its diverse and productive marine ecosystem. We analyzed past regional variability and future changes in the Metabolic Index (Φ), a species-specific measure of the environment's capacity to meet temperature-dependent organismal oxygen demand. Across the traits of diverse animals, Φ exhibits strong seasonal to interdecadal variations throughout the CCS, implying that resident species already experience large fluctuations in available aerobic habitat.

Microbial ecosystem dynamics drive fluctuating nitrogen loss in marine anoxic zones.

The dynamics of nitrogen (N) loss in the ocean's oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs) are thought to be driven by climate impacts on ocean circulation and biological productivity. Here we analyze a data-constrained model of the microbial ecosystem in an ODZ and find that species interactions drive fluctuations in local- and regional-scale rates of N loss, even in the absence of climate variability. By consuming O to nanomolar levels, aerobic nitrifying microbes cede their competitive advantage for scarce forms of N to anaerobic denitrifying bacteria.

Temperature-dependent hypoxia explains biogeography and severity of end-Permian marine mass extinction.

Rapid climate change at the end of the Permian Period (~252 million years ago) is the hypothesized trigger for the largest mass extinction in Earth's history. We present model simulations of the Permian/Triassic climate transition that reproduce the ocean warming and oxygen (O) loss indicated by the geologic record. The effect of these changes on animal survival is evaluated using the Metabolic Index (Φ), a measure of scope for aerobic activity governed by organismal traits sampled in diverse modern species.