High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices, health and the environment.

Higher food prices arising from restrictions on exports from Russia or Ukraine have been exacerbated by energy price rises, leading to higher costs for agricultural inputs such as fertilizer. Here, using a scenario modelling approach, we quantify the potential outcomes of increasing agricultural input costs and the curtailment of exports from Russia and Ukraine on human health and the environment. We show that, combined, agricultural inputs costs and food export restrictions could increase food costs by 60-100% in 2023 from 2021 levels, potentially leading to undernourishment of 61-107 million people in 2023 and annual additional deaths of 416,000 to 1.

How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health, environmental sustainability, and food affordability: a modelling study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic arrived at a time of faltering global poverty reduction and increasing levels of diet-related diseases, both of which have a strong link to poor outcomes for those with COVID-19. Governments responded to the pandemic by placing unprecedented restrictions on internal and external movements, which have resulted in an economic contraction. In response to the economic shock, G20 governments have committed to providing US$14 trillion stimuli to support economic recovery.