Application-specific optimal model weighting of global climate models: A red tide example.

Global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) provide many climate services with environmental relevance. The High Resolution Model Inter-comparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) provides model runs of GCMs and ESMs to address regional phenomena. Developing a parsimonious ensemble of CMIP6 requires multiple ensemble methods such as independent-model subset selection, prescreening-based subset selection, and model weighting.

Earth system models for regional environmental management of red tide: Prospects and limitations of current generation models and next generation development.

Earth system models (ESMs) serve as a unique research infrastructure for quality climate services, yet their application for environmental management at regional scale has not yet been fully explored. The unprecedented resolution and model fidelity of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, especially of the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) focusing on regional phenomena, offer opportunities for such applications. This article presents the first venture into using the HighResMIP simulations to tackle a regional environmental issue, the Florida Red Tide.

Prescreening-Based Subset Selection for Improving Predictions of Earth System Models With Application to Regional Prediction of Red Tide.

We present the ensemble method of prescreening-based subset selection to improve ensemble predictions of Earth system models (ESMs). In the prescreening step, the independent ensemble members are categorized based on their ability to reproduce physically-interpretable features of interest that are regional and problem-specific. The ensemble size is then updated by selecting the subsets that improve the performance of the ensemble prediction using decision relevant metrics.

Value of irrigation water usage in South Florida agriculture.

This study estimates economic loss from South Florida croplands when usage of agricultural irrigation water is altered. In South Florida, 78% of the total value of farm products sold is comprised of cropland products. The majority of Florida citrus and sugarcane are produced in the area, and agricultural irrigation was the largest sector of water use in 2010, followed by public water supply.