Estimating the number of livebirths to Hepatitis C seropositive women in England in 2013 and 2018 using Bayesian modelling.

Background: The UK National Screening Committee currently recommends against antenatal screening for Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in England due to lack of HCV prevalence data and treatment licensed for use in pregnancy. We aimed to produce regional and national estimates of the number and proportion of livebirths to HCV seropositive women in England in 2013 and 2018.

Methods: A logistic regression model fitted in the Bayesian framework estimated probabilities of HCV seropositivity among 24,599 mothers delivering in the North Thames area of England in 2012 adjusted by maternal age and region of birth.

Covid lockdowns in the UK: Estimating their effects on transmission.

UK citizens have lived through three lockdowns over the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. What effect have these restrictions had on the transmission of the virus? and investigate.

A simple method for correcting for the Will Rogers phenomenon with biometrical applications.

In its basic form, the Will Rogers phenomenon takes place when an increase in the average value of each of two sets is achieved by moving an element from one set to another. This leads to the conclusion that there has been an improvement, when in fact essentially nothing has changed. Extended versions of this phenomenon can occur in epidemiological studies, rendering their results unreliable.

Analysis of paediatric visual acuity using Bayesian copula models with sinh-arcsinh marginal densities.

We analyse paediatric ophthalmic data from a large sample of children aged between 3 and 8 years. We use a Bayesian additive conditional bivariate copula regression model with sinh-arcsinh marginal densities with location, scale, and shape parameters that depend smoothly on a covariate. We perform Bayesian inference about the unknown quantities of our model using a specially tailored Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.

Contrasting patterns in the small-scale heterogeneity of human helminth infections in urban and rural environments in Brazil.

Marked heterogeneity exists in the patterns of parasitic infection between individuals, households and communities. Analysis of parasite distributions within populations is complicated by the fact that parasite distributions are highly aggregated and few studies have explicitly incorporated this distribution when investigating small-scale spatial heterogeneities. This study aimed to quantify the small-scale (within- and between-household) heterogeneity of helminth infection in an area of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, with rural and urban sectors.

Spatial variation of Anopheles-transmitted Wuchereria bancrofti and Plasmodium falciparum infection densities in Papua New Guinea.

The spatial variation of Wuchereria bancrofti and Plasmodium falciparum infection densities was measured in a rural area of Papua New Guinea where they share anopheline vectors. The spatial correlation of W. bancrofti was found to reduce by half over an estimated distance of 1.