Error analysis in predictive modelling demonstrated on mould data.

The purpose of this paper was to develop a predictive model for the effect of temperature and water activity on the growth rate of Aspergillus niger and to determine the sources of the error when the model is used for prediction. Parallel mould growth curves, derived from the same spore batch, were generated and fitted to determine their growth rate. The variances of replicate ln(growth-rate) estimates were used to quantify the experimental variability, inherent to the method of determining the growth rate.

Utilizing luminometry for monitoring growth of Listeria monocytogenes in its liquid or gelified monocultures and cocultures with "acid-only" Lactococcus lactis.

The light output of a bioluminescent recombinant strain of Listeria monocytogenes increased parallel with its viable cell counts during the exponential phase of the growth both in aerobic monocultures and mixed cultures, but dropped significantly at the commencement of the stationary phase. Suppression of L. monocytogenes by a nisin-less strain of Lactococcus lactis occurred only as an early induction of the stationary state of the target organism.