The Unintended Benefits of the Conservation Reserve Program for Air Quality.

The link between agriculture and air pollution is well-established, as are the benefits of the US Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). However, little research has linked CRP to air quality directly. This study aims to address this gap by modeling the relationship between CRP and fine particulate matter (PM) concentrations at the county level from 2001 to 2016.

Model-based evaluation of policy impacts and the continued COVID-19 risk at long term care facilities.

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted long-term care facilities resulting in the death of approximately 8% of residents nationwide as of March 2021. As COVID-19 case rates declined and state and county restrictions were lifted in spring 2021, facility managers, local and state health agencies were challenged with defining their own policies moving forward to appropriately mitigate disease transmission. The continued emergence of variants of concern and variable vaccine uptake across facilities highlighted the need for a readily available tool that can be employed at the facility-level to determine best practices for mitigation and ensure resident and staff safety.

Modeling the systemic risks of COVID-19 on the wildland firefighting workforce.

Wildfire management in the US relies on a complex nationwide network of shared resources that are allocated based on regional need. While this network bolsters firefighting capacity, it may also provide pathways for transmission of infectious diseases between fire sites. In this manuscript, we review a first attempt at building an epidemiological model adapted to the interconnected fire system, with the aims of supporting prevention and mitigation efforts along with understanding potential impacts to workforce capacity.

Effects of land dispossession and forced migration on Indigenous peoples in North America.

What are the full extent and long-term effects of land dispossession and forced migration for Indigenous peoples in North America? We leveraged a new dataset of Indigenous land dispossession and forced migration to statistically compare features of historical tribal lands to present-day tribal lands at the aggregate and individual tribe level. Results show a near-total aggregate reduction of Indigenous land density and spread. Indigenous peoples were forced to lands that are more exposed to climate change risks and hazards and are less likely to lie over valuable subsurface oil and gas resources.

Estimating the Impact of Statewide Policies to Reduce Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 in Real Time, Colorado, USA.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic necessitated rapid local public health response, but studies examining the impact of social distancing policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have struggled to capture regional-level dynamics. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered transmission model, parameterized to Colorado, USA‒specific data, to estimate the impact of coronavirus disease‒related policy measures on mobility and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in real time. During March‒June 2020, we estimated unknown parameter values and generated scenario-based projections of future clinical care needs.

Maximizing the Efficiency of Active Case Finding for SARS-CoV-2 Using Bandit Algorithms.

Even as vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) expands in the United States, cases will linger among unvaccinated individuals for at least the next year, allowing the spread of the coronavirus to continue in communities across the country. Detecting these infections, particularly asymptomatic ones, is critical to stemming further transmission of the virus in the months ahead. This will require active surveillance efforts in which these undetected cases are proactively sought out rather than waiting for individuals to present to testing sites for diagnosis.

Measuring voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Staying home and avoiding unnecessary contact is an important part of the effort to contain COVID-19 and limit deaths. Every state in the United States enacted policies to encourage distancing and some mandated staying home. Understanding how these policies interact with individuals' voluntary responses to the COVID-19 epidemic is a critical initial step in understanding the role of these nonpharmaceutical interventions in transmission dynamics and assessing policy impacts.

Risk compensation and face mask mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Face masks are an important component in controlling COVID-19, and policy orders to wear masks are common. However, behavioral responses are seldom additive, and exchanging one protective behavior for another could undermine the COVID-19 policy response. We use SafeGraph smart device location data and variation in the date that US states and counties issued face mask mandates as a set of natural experiments to investigate risk compensation behavior.

A COVID-19 Risk Assessment for the US Labor Force.

The consequences of COVID-19 infection varies substantially based on individual social risk factors and predisposing health conditions. Understanding this variability may be critical for targeting COVID-19 control measures, resources and policies, including efforts to return people back to the workplace. We compiled individual level data from the National Health Information Survey and Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages to estimate the number of at-risk workers for each US county and industry, accounting for both social and health risks.

Impact of school closures for COVID-19 on the US health-care workforce and net mortality: a modelling study.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is leading to social (physical) distancing policies worldwide, including in the USA. Some of the first actions taken by governments are the closing of schools. The evidence that mandatory school closures reduce the number of cases and, ultimately, mortality comes from experience with influenza or from models that do not include the effect of school closure on the health-care labour force.

Acute Air Pollution Exposure and the Risk of Violent Behavior in the United States.

Background: Violence is a leading cause of death and an important public health threat, particularly among adolescents and young adults. However, the environmental causes of violent behavior are not well understood. Emerging evidence suggests exposure to air pollution may be associated with aggressive or impulsive reactions in people.

The allocation of time and risk of Lyme: A case of ecosystem service income and substitution effects.

Forests are often touted for their ecosystem services, including outdoor recreation. Historically forests were a source of danger and were avoided. Forests continue to be reservoirs for infectious diseases and their vectors - a disservice.

Linking Time-Use Data to Explore Health Outcomes: Choosing to Vaccinate Against Influenza.

To inform public health and medical decision makers concerning vaccination interventions, a methodology for merging and analyzing detailed activity data and health outcomes is presented. The objective is to investigate relationships between individual's activity choices and their decision to receive an influenza vaccination. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) are used to predict vaccination rates in the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data between 2003 and 2013 by using combined socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.

Measuring the value of groundwater and other forms of natural capital.

Valuing natural capital is fundamental to measuring sustainability. The United Nations Environment Programme, World Bank, and other agencies have called for inclusion of the value of natural capital in sustainability metrics, such as inclusive wealth. Much has been written about the importance of natural capital, but consistent, rigorous valuation approaches compatible with the pricing of traditional forms of capital have remained elusive.

Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic.

Managing infectious disease is among the foremost challenges for public health policy. Interpersonal contacts play a critical role in infectious disease transmission, and recent advances in epidemiological theory suggest a central role for adaptive human behaviour with respect to changing contact patterns. However, theoretical studies cannot answer the following question: are individual responses to disease of sufficient magnitude to shape epidemiological dynamics and infectious disease risk? We provide empirical evidence that Americans voluntarily reduced their time spent in public places during the 2009 A/H1N1 swine flu, and that these behavioural shifts were of a magnitude capable of reducing the total number of cases.