Projections of fire probability and ecosystem vulnerability under 21st century climate across a trans-Andean productivity gradient in Patagonia.

Warming trends are altering fire regimes globally, potentially impacting on the long-term persistence of some ecosystems. However, we still lack clear understanding of how climatic stressors will alter fire regimes along productivity gradients. We trained a Random Forests model of fire probabilities across a 5°lat × 2° long trans-Andean rainfall gradient in northern Patagonia using a 23-year long fire record and biophysical, vegetation, human activity and seasonal fire weather predictors.