Explainable machine learning for predicting conversion to neurological disease: Results from 52,939 medical records.

Objective: This study assesses the application of interpretable machine learning modeling using electronic medical record data for the prediction of conversion to neurological disease.

Methods: A retrospective dataset of Cleveland Clinic patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, multiple sclerosis, or Parkinson's disease, and matched controls based on age, sex, race, and ethnicity was compiled. Individualized risk prediction models were created using eXtreme Gradient Boosting for each neurological disease at four timepoints in patient history.