Risk and protective factors for ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar in the EU, and mitigation measures for managing the disease in wild boar.

Five epidemiological aspects of ASF were evaluated using literature reviews, field studies, questionnaires and mathematical models. First, a literature review and a case-control study in commercial pig farms emphasised the importance of biosecurity and farming practices, including the spread of manure around farms and the use of bedding material as risk factors, while the use of insect nets was a protective factor. Second, although wild boar density is a relevant known factor, the statistical and mechanistic models did not show a clear and consistent effect of wild boar density on ASF epidemiology in the selected scenarios.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2023.

In 2023, 14 Member States were affected by African swine fever (ASF), including Croatia and Sweden where ASF emerged (wild boar outbreaks only) and Greece where ASF re-emerged after being free since 2021. The number of ASF outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU was five times higher than in 2022, reaching a similar magnitude to that in 2019. This was predominantly driven by the introduction and subsequent spread of ASF in Croatia and its resurgence in Romania, representing 96% of the EU outbreaks.

Update of the risk assessment of inorganic arsenic in food.

The European Commission asked EFSA to update its 2009 risk assessment on arsenic in food carrying out a hazard assessment of inorganic arsenic (iAs) and using the revised exposure assessment issued by EFSA in 2021. Epidemiological studies show that the chronic intake of iAs via diet and/or drinking water is associated with increased risk of several adverse outcomes including cancers of the skin, bladder and lung. The CONTAM Panel used the benchmark dose lower confidence limit based on a benchmark response (BMR) of 5% (relative increase of the background incidence after adjustment for confounders, BMDL) of 0.

TKPlate 1.0: An Open-access platform for toxicokinetic and toxicodynamic modelling of chemicals to implement new approach methodologies in chemical risk assessment.

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications articles: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.

Epidemiological analysis of African swine fever in the European Union during 2022.

This report presents the epidemiological analysis of African swine fever (ASF) during 2022 based on the surveillance and pig population data submitted by the European Union (EU) affected countries and one neighbouring country. Coinciding with regulatory changes and an important decrease in ASF outbreaks in 2022 in the EU, the number of domestic pig samples tested as part of active surveillance decreased by 80%, while the number of samples from passive surveillance almost doubled compared with 2021. Most outbreaks among domestic pigs in the EU were detected by testing clinical suspicions (93% of outbreaks), followed by tracing activities (5%) and weekly testing of the first two dead pigs per establishment (2%).

Guidance on the use of the benchmark dose approach in risk assessment.

The Scientific Committee (SC) reconfirms that the benchmark dose (BMD) approach is a scientifically more advanced method compared to the no-observed-adverse-effect-level (NOAEL) approach for deriving a Reference Point (RP). The major change compared to the previous Guidance (EFSA SC, 2017) concerns the Section 2.5, in which a change from the frequentist to the Bayesian paradigm is recommended.

Technical specifications for a baseline survey on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant (MRSA) in pigs.

The European Commission requested scientific and technical assistance in the preparation of a EU-wide baseline survey protocol for a European Union (EU) coordinated monitoring programme on the prevalence of methicillin-resistant (MRSA) in pigs. The objective of the survey is to estimate the MRSA prevalence in batches of fattening pigs at slaughter at both European and national levels, with a 95% level of confidence and a level of precision of 10% considering an expected prevalence of 50%. The survey protocol defines the target population, the sample size for the survey, sample collection requirements, the analytical methods (for isolation, identification, phenotypic susceptibility testing and further genotypic testing of MRSA isolates), the data reporting requirements and the plan of analysis.

Conversion of calcium-l-methylfolate and (6S)-5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid glucosamine salt into dietary folate equivalents.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Nutrition, Novel Foods and Food Allergens (NDA) was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the conversion of calcium-l-methylfolate and ()-5-methyltetrahydrofolic acid glucosamine salt (collectively called 5-MTHF hereafter) into dietary folate equivalents (DFE). Following a systematic review, the conclusions of the opinion are based on one intervention study in adults for intakes < 400 μg/day and three intervention studies in adults for intakes ≥ 400 μg/day. At intakes below 400 μg/day, folic acid (FA) is assumed to be linearly related to responses of biomarkers of intake and status and is an appropriate comparator for deriving a DFE conversion factor for 5-MTHF.

ASF Exit Strategy: Providing cumulative evidence of the absence of African swine fever virus circulation in wild boar populations using standard surveillance measures.

EFSA assessed the role of seropositive wild boar in African swine fever (ASF) persistence. Surveillance data from Estonia and Latvia investigated with a generalised equation method demonstrated a significantly slower decline in seroprevalence in adult animals compared with subadults. The seroprevalence in adults, taking more than 24 months to approach zero after the last detection of ASFV circulation, would be a poor indicator to demonstrate the absence of virus circulation.

Rift Valley Fever - assessment of effectiveness of surveillance and control measures in the EU.

Effectiveness of surveillance and control measures against Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Mayotte (overseas France) and in continental EU were assessed using mathematical models. Surveillance for early detection of RVF virus circulation implies very low design prevalence values and thus sampling a high number of animals, so feasibility issues may rise. Passive surveillance based on notified abortions in ruminants is key for early warning and at present the only feasible surveillance option.

An extended and unified modeling framework for benchmark dose estimation for both continuous and binary data.

Protection and safety authorities recommend the use of model averaging to determine the benchmark dose approach as a scientifically more advanced method compared with the no-observed-adverse-effect-level approach for obtaining a reference point and deriving health-based guidance values. Model averaging however highly depends on the set of candidate dose-response models and such a set should be rich enough to ensure that a well-fitting model is included. The currently applied set of candidate models for continuous endpoints is typically limited to two models, the exponential and Hill model, and differs completely from the richer set of candidate models currently used for binary endpoints.

Rift Valley Fever - epidemiological update and risk of introduction into Europe.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by a broad spectrum of mosquito species, especially Aedes and Culex genus, to animals (domestic and wild ruminants and camels) and humans. Rift Valley fever is endemic in sub-Saharan Africa and in the Arabian Peninsula, with periodic epidemics characterised by 5-15 years of inter-epizootic periods. In the last two decades, RVF was notified in new African regions (e.

Lumpy skin disease epidemiological report IV: data collection and analysis.

In 2019, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in South-Eastern Europe, the mass vaccination regional campaign with homologous LSD vaccine continued for the fourth year with over 1.8 million bovines vaccinated in the region, preventing further outbreaks since 2016. LSD outbreaks were reported in Turkey, including western Turkey, in Russia and in eastern Asia affecting China, Bangladesh and India for the first time.

Research gap analysis on African swine fever.

The most significant knowledge gaps in the prevention and control of African swine fever (ASF) were identified by the EU Veterinary services and other stakeholders involved in pig production and wild boar management through an online survey. The respondents were asked to identify the major research needs in order to improve short-term ASF risk management. Four major gaps were identified: 'wild boar', 'African swine fever virus (ASFV) survival and transmission', 'biosecurity' and 'surveillance'.

Risk assessment of African swine fever in the south-eastern countries of Europe.

The European Commission requested EFSA to estimate the risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) and to identify potential risk factors (indicators) for the spread of ASF, given introduction in the south-eastern countries of Europe (region of concern, ROC), namely Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Greece, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia. Three EU Member States (MS) - Croatia, Greece and Slovenia - were included in the ROC due to their geographical location and ASF-free status. Based on collected information on potential risk factors (indicators) for each country and the relevant EU regulations in force, the estimated probability of spread of ASF within the ROC within one year after introduction into the ROC was assessed to be very high (from 66% to 100%).

Occurrence and Co-Occurrence of Mycotoxins in Cereal-Based Feed and Food.

Dietary (co)-exposure to mycotoxins is associated with human and animal health concerns as well as economic losses. This study aims to give a data-based insight from the scientific literature on the (co-)occurrence of mycotoxins (i.e.

Investigating combined toxicity of binary mixtures in bees: Meta-analysis of laboratory tests, modelling, mechanistic basis and implications for risk assessment.

Bees are exposed to a wide range of multiple chemicals "chemical mixtures" from anthropogenic (e.g. plant protection products or veterinary products) or natural origin (e.

Testing the thresholds of toxicological concern values using a new database for food-related substances.

The Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) concept integrates data on exposure, chemical structure, toxicity and metabolism to identify a safe exposure threshold value for chemicals with insufficient toxicity data for risk assessment. The TTC values were originally derived from a non-cancer dataset of 613 compounds with a potentially small domain of applicability. There is interest to test whether the TTC values are applicable to a broader range of substances, particularly relevant to food safety using EFSA's new OpenFoodTox database.

Trace element fingerprinting of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) shells and soft tissues successfully reveals harvesting locations.

Globally, aquaculture products are expected to account for >60% of total seafood produce by 2030. In the European Union, the seafood sector is of considerable economic importance to member states with household spending on seafood produce totalling €54.8 billion in 2016.

Update of the Scientific Opinion on the risks to plant health posed by in the EU territory.

EFSA was asked to update the 2015 EFSA risk assessment on for the territory of the EU. In particular, EFSA was asked to focus on potential establishment, short- and long-range spread, the length of the asymptomatic period, the impact of and an update on risk reduction options. EFSA was asked to take into account the different subspecies and Sequence Types of .

Lumpy skin disease: III. Data collection and analysis.

In 2018, no lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were reported in the Balkan region, after the decline reported in 2017 (385) compared to 2016 (7,483). This confirms the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign based on the LSD homologous vaccine strain which continued throughout 2018 with over 2.5 million animals vaccinated, keeping the mean vaccination coverage above 70%.

Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016.

Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016.

Neethling vaccine proved highly effective in controlling lumpy skin disease epidemics in the Balkans.

Despite the wide use of the live attenuated Neethling lumpy skin disease (LSD) vaccine, only limited data existed on its efficacy and effectiveness prior to the large LSD epidemic in the Balkans, which took place during 2016-2017. In addition, analysis of risk factors for the disease was hardly performed with proper control for vaccination effects and potential differences in exposure to the virus. Data from the LSD epidemics in six Balkan countries (Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) and Albania) affected during 2016 were analyzed to determine vaccine effectiveness (VE) and risk factors for LSD infection at the farm level.