Multimodeling approach to evaluating the efficacy of layering pharmaceutical and nonpharmaceutical interventions for influenza pandemics.

When an influenza pandemic emerges, temporary school closures and antiviral treatment may slow virus spread, reduce the overall disease burden, and provide time for vaccine development, distribution, and administration while keeping a larger portion of the general population infection free. The impact of such measures will depend on the transmissibility and severity of the virus and the timing and extent of their implementation. To provide robust assessments of layered pandemic intervention strategies, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded a network of academic groups to build a framework for the development and comparison of multiple pandemic influenza models.

Analysis of an epidemiological model structured by time-since-last-infection.

Modeling time-since-last-infection (TSLI) provides a means of formulating epidemiological models with fewer state variables (or epidemiological classes) and more flexible descriptions of infectivity after infection and susceptibility after recovery than usual. The model considered here has two time variables: chronological time () and the TSLI (), and it has only two classes: never infected ( ) and infected at least once (). Unlike most age-structured epidemiological models, in which the equation is formulated using , ours uses a more general differential operator.

Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines.

The efficacy of influenza vaccines, currently at 44%, is limited by the rapid antigenic evolution of the virus and a manufacturing process that can lead to vaccine mismatch. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) recently identified the development of a universal influenza vaccine with an efficacy of at least 75% as a high scientific priority. The US Congress approved $130 million funding for the 2019 fiscal year to support the development of a universal vaccine, and another $1 billion over 5 y has been proposed in the Flu Vaccine Act.

The potential economic burden of Zika in the continental United States.

Background: As the Zika virus epidemic continues to spread internationally, countries such as the United States must determine how much to invest in prevention, control, and response. Fundamental to these decisions is quantifying the potential economic burden of Zika under different scenarios.

Methodology/principle Findings: To inform such decision making, our team developed a computational model to forecast the potential economic burden of Zika across six states in the US (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas) which are at greatest risk of Zika emergence, under a wide range of attack rates, scenarios and circumstances.

A Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Informing Policies on Zika Virus Control.

Background: As Zika virus continues to spread, decisions regarding resource allocations to control the outbreak underscore the need for a tool to weigh policies according to their cost and the health burden they could avert. For example, to combat the current Zika outbreak the US President requested the allocation of $1.8 billion from Congress in February 2016.

Optimizing age of cytomegalovirus screening and vaccination to avert congenital disease in the US.

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the leading cause of congenital cognitive deficit, visual impairment and hearing loss in the US. Clinical trials are underway to evaluate the efficacy of CMV vaccine candidates in seronegative females. The optimal age of such vaccination depends on the interplay among age-specific transmission dynamics, vaccine efficacy and vaccine waning.

Dynamics and control of Ebola virus transmission in Montserrado, Liberia: a mathematical modelling analysis.

Background: A substantial scale-up in public health response is needed to control the unprecedented Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in west Africa. Current international commitments seek to expand intervention capacity in three areas: new EVD treatment centres, case ascertainment through contact tracing, and household protective kit allocation. We aimed to assess how these interventions could be applied individually and in combination to avert future EVD cases and deaths.

A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift.

We describe a multiple strain Susceptible Infected Recovered deterministic model for the spread of an influenza subtype within a population. The model incorporates appearance of new strains due to antigenic drift, and partial immunity to reinfection with related circulating strains. It also includes optional seasonal forcing of the transmission rate of the virus, which allows for comparison between temperate zones and the tropics.