Pandemic wave trends in COVID-19 cases, mobility reduction, and climate parameters in major metropolitan areas in the United States.

In this paper, we analyzed the association among trends in COVID-19 cases, climate, air quality, and mobility changes during the first and second waves of the pandemic in five major metropolitan counties in the United States: Maricopa in Arizona, Cook in Illinois, Los Angeles in California, Suffolk in Massachusetts, and New York County in New York. These areas represent a range of climate conditions, geographies, economies, and state-mandated social distancing restrictions. In the first wave of the pandemic, cases were correlated with humidity in Maricopa, and temperature in Maricopa and Los Angeles.

Managing Physical and Economic Risk for Systems with Multidirectional Network Interdependencies.

Critical infrastructure networks, such as transportation and supply chains, are becoming increasingly interdependent. As the operability of network nodes relies on the operability of connected nodes, network disruptions have the potential to spread across entire networks, having catastrophic consequences in the realms of physical network performance and also economic performance. While risk-informed physical network models and economic models have been well-studied in the literature, there is limited study of how physical features of network performance interact with sector-specific economic performance, particularly as these physical networks recover from disruptions of varying durations.

A Risk Analysis Framework for Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection of the U.S. Electric Power Grid.

The purpose of this article is to introduce a risk analysis framework to enhance the cyber security of and to protect the critical infrastructure of the electric power grid of the United States. Building on the fundamental questions of risk assessment and management, this framework aims to advance the current risk analysis discussions pertaining to the electric power grid. Most of the previous risk-related studies on the electric power grid focus mainly on the recovery of the network from hurricanes and other natural disasters.

Supply Chain Vulnerability Analysis Using Scenario-Based Input-Output Modeling: Application to Port Operations.

Disruptive events such as natural disasters, loss or reduction of resources, work stoppages, and emergent conditions have potential to propagate economic losses across trade networks. In particular, disruptions to the operation of container port activity can be detrimental for international trade and commerce. Risk assessment should anticipate the impact of port operation disruptions with consideration of how priorities change due to uncertain scenarios and guide investments that are effective and feasible for implementation.

A stochastic recovery model of influenza pandemic effects on interdependent workforce systems.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as pandemics, can result in adverse consequences and major economic losses across various economic sectors. Based on findings from the 2009 A H1N1 pandemic in the National Capital Region (NCR), this paper presents a recovery analysis for workforce disruptions using economic input-output modeling. The model formulation takes into consideration the dynamic interdependencies across sectors in an economic system in addition to the inherent characteristics of the economic sectors.

State of the art in risk analysis of workforce criticality influencing disaster preparedness for interdependent systems.

The objective of this article is to discuss a needed paradigm shift in disaster risk analysis to emphasize the role of the workforce in managing the recovery of interdependent infrastructure and economic systems. Much of the work that has been done on disaster risk analysis has focused primarily on preparedness and recovery strategies for disrupted infrastructure systems. The reliability of systems such as transportation, electric power, and telecommunications is crucial in sustaining business processes, supply chains, and regional livelihoods, as well as ensuring the availability of vital services in the aftermath of disasters.

Modeling uncertainties in workforce disruptions from influenza pandemics using dynamic input-output analysis.

Influenza pandemic is a serious disaster that can pose significant disruptions to the workforce and associated economic sectors. This article examines the impact of influenza pandemic on workforce availability within an interdependent set of economic sectors. We introduce a simulation model based on the dynamic input-output model to capture the propagation of pandemic consequences through the National Capital Region (NCR).

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism.

Multiobjective prioritization methodology and decision support system for evaluating inventory enhancement strategies for disrupted interdependent sectors.

Disruptions in the production of commodities and services resulting from disasters influence the vital functions of infrastructure and economic sectors within a region. The interdependencies inherent among these sectors trigger the faster propagation of disaster consequences that are often associated with a wider range of inoperability and amplified losses. This article evaluates the impact of inventory-enhanced policies for disrupted interdependent sectors to improve the disaster preparedness capability of dynamic inoperability input-output models (DIIM).

Risk analysis of Safety Service Patrol (SSP) systems in Virginia.

The transportation infrastructure is a vital backbone of any regional economy as it supports workforce mobility, tourism, and a host of socioeconomic activities. In this article, we specifically examine the incident management function of the transportation infrastructure. In many metropolitan regions, incident management is handled primarily by safety service patrols (SSPs), which monitor and resolve roadway incidents.

A risk-based approach for identifying key economic and infrastructure systems.

This article introduces approaches for identifying key interdependent infrastructure sectors based on the inventory dynamic inoperability input-output model, which integrates an inventory model and a risk-based interdependency model. An identification of such key sectors narrows a policymaker's focus on sectors providing most impact and receiving most impact from inventory-caused delays in inoperability resulting from disruptive events. A case study illustrates the practical insights of the key sector approaches derived from a value of workforce-centered production inoperability from Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

Pandemic recovery analysis using the dynamic inoperability input-output model.

Economists have long conceptualized and modeled the inherent interdependent relationships among different sectors of the economy. This concept paved the way for input-output modeling, a methodology that accounts for sector interdependencies governing the magnitude and extent of ripple effects due to changes in the economic structure of a region or nation. Recent extensions to input-output modeling have enhanced the model's capabilities to account for the impact of an economic perturbation; two such examples are the inoperability input-output model((1,2)) and the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM).

Estimating Workforce-Related Economic Impact of a Pandemic on the Commonwealth of Virginia.

A pandemic outbreak is one of the major planning scenarios considered by emergency-preparedness policymakers. The consequences of a pandemic can significantly affect and disrupt a large spectrum of workforce sectors in today's society. This paper, motivated by the impact of a pandemic, extends the formulation of the dynamic inoperability input-output model (DIIM) to account for economic perturbations resulting from such an event, which creates a time-varying and probabilistic inoperability to the workforce.

International trade inoperability input-output model (IT-IIM): theory and application.

The inoperability input-output model (IIM) has been used for analyzing disruptions due to man-made or natural disasters that can adversely affect the operation of economic systems or critical infrastructures. Taking economic perturbation for each sector as inputs, the IIM provides the degree of economic production impacts on all industry sectors as the outputs for the model. The current version of the IIM does not provide a separate analysis for the international trade component of the inoperability.

A framework for linking cybersecurity metrics to the modeling of macroeconomic interdependencies.

Hierarchical decision making is a multidimensional process involving management of multiple objectives (with associated metrics and tradeoffs in terms of costs, benefits, and risks), which span various levels of a large-scale system. The nation is a hierarchical system as it consists multiple classes of decisionmakers and stakeholders ranging from national policymakers to operators of specific critical infrastructure subsystems. Critical infrastructures (e.

Extreme risk analysis of interdependent economic and infrastructure sectors.

Willful attacks or natural disasters pose extreme risks to sectors of the economy. An extreme-event analysis extension is proposed for the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) and the Dynamic IIM (DIIM), which are analytical methodologies for assessing the propagated consequences of initial disruptions to a set of sectors. The article discusses two major risk categories that the economy typically experiences following extreme events: (i) significant changes in consumption patterns due to lingering public fear and (ii) adjustments to the production outputs of the interdependent economic sectors that are necessary to match prevailing consumption levels during the recovery period.

Modeling the demand reduction input-output (I-O) inoperability due to terrorism of interconnected infrastructures.

Interdependency analysis in the context of this article is a process of assessing and managing risks inherent in a system of interconnected entities (e.g., infrastructures or industry sectors).