Critical comparison of statistical methods for quantifying variability and uncertainty of microbial responses from experimental data.

Variability and uncertainty are important factors for quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA). In this context, variability refers to inherent sources of variation, whereas uncertainty refers to imprecise knowledge or lack of it. In this work we compare three statistical methods to estimate variability in the kinetic parameters of microbial populations: mixed-effect models, multilevel Bayesian models, and a simplified algebraic method previously suggested.

Rise and fall of the new variant of in Sweden: mathematical modelling study.

Objectives: A new variant of (nvCT) was discovered in Sweden in 2006. The nvCT has a plasmid deletion, which escaped detection by two nucleic acid amplification tests (Abbott-Roche, AR), which were used in 14 of 21 Swedish counties. The objectives of this study were to assess when and where nvCT emerged in Sweden, the proportion of nvCT in each county and the role of a potential fitness difference between nvCT and co-circulating wild-type strains (wtCT).

Mismatch Amplification Mutation Assay-Based Real-Time PCR for Rapid Detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Antimicrobial Resistance Determinants in Clinical Specimens.

Molecular methods are often used for detection, but complete definition of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) patterns still requires phenotypic tests. We developed an assay that both identifies and detects AMR determinants in clinical specimens. We designed a mismatch amplification mutation assay (MAMA)-based SYBR green real-time PCR targeting one -specific region (); mosaic alleles (Asp345 deletion [Asp345del], Gly545Ser) associated with decreased susceptibility to cephalosporins; and alterations conferring resistance to ciprofloxacin (GyrA Ser91Phe), azithromycin (23S rRNA A2059G and C2611T), and spectinomycin (16S rRNA C1192T).

Age difference between heterosexual partners in Britain: Implications for the spread of Chlamydia trachomatis.

Heterosexual partners often differ in age. Integrating realistic patterns of sexual mixing by age into dynamic transmission models has been challenging. The effects of these patterns on the transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI) including Chlamydia trachomatis (chlamydia), the most common bacterial STI are not well understood.

Molecular relatedness of ESBL/AmpC-producing Escherichia coli from humans, animals, food and the environment: a pooled analysis.

Background: In recent years, ESBL/AmpC-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL/AmpC-EC) have been isolated with increasing frequency from animals, food, environmental sources and humans. With incomplete and scattered evidence, the contribution to the human carriage burden from these reservoirs remains unclear.

Objectives: To quantify molecular similarities between different reservoirs as a first step towards risk attribution.

Comparative Exposure Assessment of ESBL-Producing Escherichia coli through Meat Consumption.

The presence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) and plasmidic AmpC (pAmpC) producing Escherichia coli (EEC) in food animals, especially broilers, has become a major public health concern. The aim of the present study was to quantify the EEC exposure of humans in The Netherlands through the consumption of meat from different food animals. Calculations were done with a simplified Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model.

Practicalities of using non-local or non-recent multilocus sequence typing data for source attribution in space and time of human campylobacteriosis.

In this study, 1208 Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli isolates from humans and 400 isolates from chicken, collected in two separate periods over 12 years in The Netherlands, were typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Statistical evidence was found for a shift of ST frequencies in human isolates over time.

Risk factors for campylobacteriosis of chicken, ruminant, and environmental origin: a combined case-control and source attribution analysis.

Background: Campylobacteriosis contributes strongly to the disease burden of food-borne pathogens. Case-control studies are limited in attributing human infections to the different reservoirs because they can only trace back to the points of exposure, which may not point to the original reservoirs because of cross-contamination. Human Campylobacter infections can be attributed to specific reservoirs by estimating the extent of subtype sharing between strains from humans and reservoirs using multilocus sequence typing (MLST).

A quantitative approach towards a better understanding of the dynamics of Salmonella spp. in a pork slaughter-line.

Pork contributes significantly to the public health disease burden caused by Salmonella infections. During the slaughter process pig carcasses can become contaminated with Salmonella. Contamination at the slaughter-line is initiated by pigs carrying Salmonella on their skin or in their faeces.