The DIOS framework for optimizing infectious disease surveillance: Numerical methods for simulation and multi-objective optimization of surveillance network architectures.

Infectious disease surveillance systems provide vital data for guiding disease prevention and control policies, yet the formalization of methods to optimize surveillance networks has largely been overlooked. Decisions surrounding surveillance design parameters-such as the number and placement of surveillance sites, target populations, and case definitions-are often determined by expert opinion or deference to operational considerations, without formal analysis of the influence of design parameters on surveillance objectives. Here we propose a simulation framework to guide evidence-based surveillance network design to better achieve specific surveillance goals with limited resources.

Prenatal and early-life exposure to the Great Chinese Famine increased the risk of tuberculosis in adulthood across two generations.

Global food security is a major driver of population health, and food system collapse may have complex and long-lasting effects on health outcomes. We examined the effect of prenatal exposure to the Great Chinese Famine (1958-1962)-the largest famine in human history-on pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) across consecutive generations in a major center of ongoing transmission in China. We analyzed >1 million PTB cases diagnosed between 2005 and 2018 in Sichuan Province using age-period-cohort analysis and mixed-effects metaregression to estimate the effect of the famine on PTB risk in the directly affected birth cohort (F1) and their likely offspring (F2).

The Impact of Vaccination Efforts on the Spatiotemporal Patterns of the Hepatitis A Outbreak in Michigan, 2016-2018.

Background: The United States is currently experiencing the largest hepatitis A virus (HAV) outbreak since the introduction of a vaccine in 1996. More than 31,000 cases have been reported since 2016. Although HAV had largely been considered a foodborne pathogen in recent years, this outbreak has been spread primarily through person-to-person transmission in urban settings and has been associated with homelessness and substance use.

Evidence for heterogeneity in China's progress against pulmonary tuberculosis: uneven reductions in a major center of ongoing transmission, 2005-2017.

Background: China contributed 8.9% of all incident cases of tuberculosis globally in 2017, and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in major transmission foci in the country is critical to ongoing efforts to improve population health.

Methods: We estimated annual PTB notification rates and their spatiotemporal distributions in Sichuan province, a major center of ongoing transmission, from 2005 to 2017.

Investigating spillover of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from a prison: a spatial and molecular epidemiological analysis.

Background: Congregate settings may serve as institutional amplifiers of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We analyze spatial, epidemiological, and pathogen genetic data prospectively collected from neighborhoods surrounding a prison in Lima, Peru, where inmates experience a high risk of MDR-TB, to investigate the risk of spillover into the surrounding community.

Methods: Using hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling, we address three questions regarding the MDR-TB risk: (i) Does the excess risk observed among prisoners also extend outside the prison? (ii) If so, what is the magnitude, shape, and spatial range of this spillover effect? (iii) Is there evidence of additional transmission across the region?

Results: The region of spillover risk extends for 5.

Partially observed epidemics in wildlife hosts: modelling an outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic, June 2013-2014.

Morbilliviruses cause major mortality in marine mammals, but the dynamics of transmission and persistence are ill understood compared to terrestrial counterparts such as measles; this is especially true for epidemics in cetaceans. However, the recent outbreak of dolphin morbillivirus in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean can provide new insights into the epidemiology and spatio-temporal spread of this pathogen. To deal with uncertainties surrounding the ecology of this system (only stranded animals were observed), we develop a statistical framework that can extract key information about the underlying transmission process given only sparse data.

The impact of environmental and climatic variation on the spatiotemporal trends of hospitalized pediatric diarrhea in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

It is predicted that the integration of climate-based early warning systems into existing action plans will facilitate the timely provision of interventions to diarrheal disease epidemics in resource-poor settings. Diarrhea remains a considerable public health problem in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam and we aimed to quantify variation in the impact of environmental conditions on diarrheal disease risk across the city. Using all inpatient diarrheal admissions data from three large hospitals within HCMC, we developed a mixed effects regression model to differentiate district-level variation in risk due to environmental conditions from the overarching seasonality of diarrheal disease hospitalization in HCMC.

Identifying Hotspots of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Transmission Using Spatial and Molecular Genetic Data.

Background: We aimed to identify and determine the etiology of "hotspots" of concentrated multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-tuberculosis) risk in Lima, Peru.

Methods: From 2009 to 2012, we conducted a prospective cohort study among households of tuberculosis cases from 106 health center (HC) areas in Lima, Peru. All notified tuberculosis cases and their household contacts were followed for 1 year.

Assessing drivers of full adoption of test and treat policy for malaria in Senegal.

Malaria treatment policy has changed from presumptive treatment to targeted "test and treat" (T&T) with malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin combination therapy (ACT). This transition involves changing behavior among health providers, meaning delays between introduction and full implementation are recorded in almost every instance. We investigated factors affecting successful transition, and suggest approaches for accelerating uptake of T&T.

Age-specific risks of tuberculosis infection from household and community exposures and opportunities for interventions in a high-burden setting.

We analyzed data from a large population-based prospective cohort study of household contacts of tuberculosis patients in Lima, Peru, to estimate the importance of within-household transmission relative to community-based transmission. We identified all adults (older than 15 years of age) who had incident pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosed at any of 106 public health centers in Lima from September 2009 to August 2012. A total of 14,041 household contacts of 3,446 index patients were assessed for tuberculosis infection and disease.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin and isoniazid preventive therapy protect contacts of patients with tuberculosis.

Rationale: Individuals living with patients with tuberculosis (TB) are at elevated risk of infection and disease, with children at greatest risk. The World Health Organization recommends isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) for HIV-positive contacts and those younger than 5 years. Despite these recommendations, household-level IPT programs are rarely implemented in high TB burden settings.

Linking time-varying symptomatology and intensity of infectiousness to patterns of norovirus transmission.

Background: Norovirus (NoV) transmission may be impacted by changes in symptom intensity. Sudden onset of vomiting, which may cause an initial period of hyper-infectiousness, often marks the beginning of symptoms. This is often followed by: a 1-3 day period of milder symptoms, environmental contamination following vomiting, and post-symptomatic shedding that may result in transmission at progressively lower rates.

Social connectedness and disease transmission: social organization, cohesion, village context, and infection risk in rural Ecuador.

Social networks are typically seen as conduits for the spread of disease and disease risk factors. However, social relationships also reduce the incidence of chronic disease and potentially infectious diseases. Seldom are these opposing effects considered simultaneously.

How infections propagate after point-source outbreaks: an analysis of secondary norovirus transmission.

Background: Secondary transmission after point-source outbreaks is an integral feature of the epidemiology of gastrointestinal pathogens such as norovirus. The household is an important site of these secondary cases. It can become the source of further community transmission as well as new point-source outbreaks.