Bayesian modelling of extreme surges on the UK east coast.

The catastrophic surge event of 1953 on the eastern UK and northern European coastlines led to widespread agreement on the necessity of a coordinated response to understand the risk of future oceanographic flood events and, so far as possible, to afford protection against such events. One element of this response was better use of historical data and scientific knowledge in assessing flood risk. The timing of the event also coincided roughly with the birth of extreme value theory as a statistical discipline for measuring risks of extreme events, and over the last 50 years, as techniques have been developed and refined, various attempts have been made to improve the precision of flood risk assessment around the UK coastline.