Publications by authors named "Jonathan C Wakefield"

Ecological studies, in which data are available at the level of the group, rather than at the level of the individual, are susceptible to a range of biases due to their inability to characterize within-group variability in exposures and confounders. In order to overcome these biases, we propose a hybrid design in which ecological data are supplemented with a sample of individual-level case-control data. We develop the likelihood for this design and illustrate its benefits via simulation, both in bias reduction when compared to an ecological study, and in efficiency gains relative to a conventional case-control study.

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Background: Recent studies have indicated long-term effects on mortality of particulate and sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) pollution, but uncertainties remain over the size of any effects, potential latency and generalisability.

Methods: A small area study was performed across electoral wards in Great Britain of mean annual black smoke (BS) and SO(2) concentrations (from 1966) and subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality using random effect models within a Bayesian framework adjusted for social deprivation and urban/rural classification. Different latencies and changes in associations over time were assessed.

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Article Synopsis
  • * This article discusses using hierarchical models to address variability between groups, highlighting the computational difficulties in estimating and interpreting these models.
  • * A Bayesian approach is introduced, incorporating a data augmentation technique where unobserved data acts as auxiliary variables, with practical examples drawn from infant mortality data in North Carolina.
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