Publications by authors named "Jonas Tele Doumate"
Article Synopsis
- Several effective COVID-19 vaccines exist, but vaccination programs are limited in many African countries, prompting a study using a mathematical model to evaluate their impact on the pandemic.
- The model focuses on two populations—vaccinated and unvaccinated—and assesses vaccine effectiveness by analyzing infection and death rate ratios, finding that at least 60% of each country’s population needs to be vaccinated to effectively lower the transmission rate of the virus.
- The study suggests that even a slight reduction in transmission through non-pharmaceutical interventions can complement vaccination efforts, and calls for African governments to implement strategies to improve vaccine uptake, such as incentives.
The widely used logistic model for epidemic case reporting data may be either restrictive or unrealistic in presence of containment measures when implemented after an epidemic outbreak. For flexibility in epidemic case reporting data modeling, we combined an exponential growth curve for the early epidemic phase with a flexible growth curve to account for the potential change in growth pattern after implementation of containment measures. We also fitted logistic regression models to recoveries and deaths from the confirmed positive cases.
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