A deathly silence: why has the number of people found decomposed in England and Wales been rising?

Objectives: The number of deaths occurring in private homes in England and Wales had been rising for years, increasingly rapidly from 2020. Media stories and research linked decomposing bodies found in private homes with pandemic-related social isolation. We aim to explore whether these incidents are one-offs or part of a wider trend.

Trends in infant mortality and stillbirth rates in Scotland by socio-economic position, 2000-2018: a longitudinal ecological study.

Background: As Scotland strives to become a country where children flourish in their early years, it is faced with the challenge of socio-economic health inequalities, which are at risk of widening amidst austerity policies. The aim of this study was to explore trends in infant mortality rates (IMR) and stillbirth rates by socio-economic position (SEP) in Scotland, between 2000 and 2018, inclusive.

Methods: Data for live births, infant deaths, and stillbirths between 2000 and 2018 were obtained from National Records of Scotland.

What can lifespan variation reveal that life expectancy hides? Comparison of five high-income countries.

Objectives: In most countries, life expectancy at birth (e0) has improved for many decades. Recently, however, progress has stalled in the UK and Canada, and reversed in the USA. Lifespan variation, a complementary measure of mortality, increased a few years before the reversal in the USA.

COVID-19 - exploring the implications of long-term condition type and extent of multimorbidity on years of life lost: a modelling study.

 COVID-19 is responsible for increasing deaths globally. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some speculate that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs, using the limited data available early in the pandemic.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis.

Objectives: Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail.

How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000-2002 to 2015-2017.

Objective: Annual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000-2002 to 2012-2014 and 2012-2014 to 2015-2017.

Setting: Scotland.

Can changes in spending on health and social care explain the recent mortality trends in Scotland? A protocol for an observational study.

Introduction: There have been steady reductions in mortality rates in the majority of high-income countries, including Scotland, since 1945. However, reductions in mortality rates have slowed down since 2012-2014 in these nations; and have reversed in some cases. Deaths among those aged 55+ explain a large amount of these changing mortality trends in Scotland.

How bad are life expectancy trends across the UK, and what would it take to get back to previous trends?

Background: Within the UK, there has been debate on whether life expectancy is increasing or decreasing in particular single or 3-year periods, but there has been less thinking whether overall trends have changed. This paper considers the extent to which the trends in life expectancy for the UK and its nations have changed before and after 2011.

Methods: We used the Office for National Statistics period life expectancy data for the UK and its nations.

Trends in disease incidence and survival and their effect on mortality in Scotland: nationwide cohort study of linked hospital admission and death records 2001-2016.

Objectives: Identify causes and future trends underpinning Scottish mortality improvements and quantify the relative contributions of disease incidence and survival.

Design: Population-based study.

Setting: Linked secondary care and mortality records across Scotland.

Is austerity responsible for the recent change in mortality trends across high-income nations? A protocol for an observational study.

Introduction: Mortality rates in many high-income countries have changed from their long-term trends since around 2011. This paper sets out a protocol for testing the extent to which economic austerity can explain the variance in recent mortality trends across high-income countries.

Methods And Analysis: This is an ecological natural experiment study, which will use regression adjustment to account for differences in exposure, outcomes and confounding.

Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries.

Objective: Gains in life expectancy have faltered in several high-income countries in recent years. Scotland has consistently had a lower life expectancy than many other high-income countries over the past 70 years. We aim to compare life expectancy trends in Scotland to those seen internationally and to assess the timing and importance of any recent changes in mortality trends for Scotland.

Do age, period or cohort effects explain circulatory disease mortality trends, Scotland 1974-2015?

Objective: We aimed to explore whether age, period or cohort effects explain the trends and inequalities in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) mortality in Scotland.

Methods: We analysed IHD and CeVD deaths for 1974-2015 by sex, age and area deprivation, visually explored the data using heatmaps and dotplots and built regression models.

Results: CeVD mortality improved steadily over time while IHD mortality improved more rapidly from the late 1980s.

Socioeconomic inequality in recent adverse all-cause mortality trends in Scotland.

Background: Gains in life expectancies have stalled in Scotland, as in several other countries, since around 2012. The relationship between stalling mortality improvements and socioeconomic inequalities in health is unclear.

Methods: We calculate the difference, as percentage change, in all-cause, all-age, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) between 2006 and 2011 (period 1) and between 2012 and 2017 (period 2), for Scotland overall, by sex, and by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD) quintile.

Rethinking one of criminology's 'brute facts': The age-crime curve and the crime drop in Scotland.

Examining annual variation in the age-crime curve as a way to better understand the recent crime drop, this paper explores how the age distribution of convicted offending changed for men and women in Scotland between 1989 and 2011. This analysis employs shaded contour plots as a method of visualizing annual change in the age-crime curve. Similar to recent findings from the USA, we observed falling rates of convicted offending for young people, primarily owing to lower rates of convicted offending for young men.

Reconsidering the Relationship between Air Pollution and Deprivation.

This paper critically examines the relationship between air pollution and deprivation. We argue that focusing on a particular economic or social model of urban development might lead one to erroneously expect all cities to converge towards a particular universal norm. A naive market sorting model, for example, would predict that poor households will eventually be sorted into high pollution areas, leading to a positive relationship between air pollution and deprivation.

The Geography of a rapid rise in elderly mortality in England and Wales, 2014-15.

Since at least the early 1900s almost all affluent nations in the world have continually experienced improvements in human longevity. Using ONS mid-year population and deaths estimates for Local Authorities for England and Wales, we show that these improvements have recently reversed. We estimate that in England and Wales there were 39,074 more deaths in the year to July 2015 as compared to the year to July 2014 (32,208 of these were of individuals aged 80+).

Measurement of exhaled nitric oxide concentration in asthma: a systematic review and economic evaluation of NIOX MINO, NIOX VERO and NObreath.

Background: High fractions of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) in the breath of patients with symptoms of asthma are correlated with high levels of eosinophils and indicate that a patient is likely to respond to inhaled corticosteroids. This may have a role in the diagnosis and management of asthma.

Objective: To assess the diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the hand-held electrochemical devices NIOX MINO(®) (Aerocrine, Solna, Sweden), NIOX VERO(®) (Aerocrine) and NObreath(®) (Bedfont Scientific, Maidstone, UK) for the diagnosis and management of asthma.