Publications by authors named "John del Corral"

Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate.

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Objective: To assess the effectiveness of impregnated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying and larval control relative to the impacts of climate variability in the decline of malaria cases in Eritrea.

Methods: Monthly data on clinical malaria cases by subzoba (district) in three zobas (zones) of Eritrea for 1998-2003 were used in Poisson regression models to determine whether there is statistical evidence for reduction in cases by DDT, malathion, impregnated nets and larval control used over the period, while analysing the effects of satellite-derived climate variables in the same geographic areas.

Results: Both indoor residual spraying (with DDT or malathion) and impregnated nets were independently and significantly negatively associated with reduction in malaria cases, as was larval control in one zoba.

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Eritrea has a successful malaria control program, but it is still susceptible to devastating malaria epidemics. Monthly data on clinical malaria cases from 242 health facilities in 58 subzobas (districts) of Eritrea from 1996 to 2003 were used in a novel stratification process using principal component analysis and nonhierarchical clustering to define five areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns, to guide future interventions and development of an epidemic early warning system. Relationships between monthly clinical malaria incidence by subzoba and monthly climate data from several sources, and with seasonal climate forecasts, were investigated.

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