A shift from cattle to camel and goat farming can sustain milk production with lower inputs and emissions in north sub-Saharan Africa's drylands.

Climate change is increasingly putting milk production from cattle-based dairy systems in north sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA) under stress, threatening livelihoods and food security. Here we combine livestock heat stress frequency, dry matter feed production and water accessibility data to understand where environmental changes in NSSA's drylands are jeopardizing cattle milk production. We show that environmental conditions worsened for ∼17% of the study area.

Heat stress will detrimentally impact future livestock production in East Africa.

Climate change-induced increases in temperature and humidity are predicted to impact East African food systems, but the extent to which heat stress negatively affects livestock production in this region is poorly understood. Here we use ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that the frequency of 'Severe/Danger' heat events for dairy cattle, beef cattle, sheep, goats, swine and poultry significantly increased from 1981 to 2010. Using a multi-model ensemble of climate change projections for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 (under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.