Prediction of solar particle event proton doses using early dose rate measurements.

A methodology for predicting solar particle event doses using Bayesian inference is being developed. As part of this development, we have tested criteria for categorization of new solar particle events (SPE) using calculated asymptotic doses and dose rates for the 22 SPEs that occurred in 2001. In 9 out of 22 events, our criteria for categorization would have over-predicted the range of asymptotic doses in which the tested events would have fallen.