Modeled distribution shifts of North American birds over four decades based on suitable climate alone do not predict observed shifts.

As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance-based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011.

Model selection for the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

The North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) provides data that can be used in complex, multiscale analyses of population change, while controlling for scale-specific nuisance factors. Many alternative models can be fit to the data, but most model selection procedures are not appropriate for hierarchical models. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV), in which relative model fit is assessed by omitting an observation and assessing the prediction of a model fit using the remainder of the data, provides a reasonable approach for assessing models, but is time consuming and not feasible to apply for all observations in large data sets.

Decline of the North American avifauna.

Species extinctions have defined the global biodiversity crisis, but extinction begins with loss in abundance of individuals that can result in compositional and functional changes of ecosystems. Using multiple and independent monitoring networks, we report population losses across much of the North American avifauna over 48 years, including once-common species and from most biomes. Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance.

On the robustness of N-mixture models.

N-mixture models provide an appealing alternative to mark-recapture models, in that they allow for estimation of detection probability and population size from count data, without requiring that individual animals be identified. There is, however, a cost to using the N-mixture models: inference is very sensitive to the model's assumptions. We consider the effects of three violations of assumptions that might reasonably be expected in practice: double counting, unmodeled variation in population size over time, and unmodeled variation in detection probability over time.

On the reliability of N-mixture models for count data.

N-mixture models describe count data replicated in time and across sites in terms of abundance N and detectability p. They are popular because they allow inference about N while controlling for factors that influence p without the need for marking animals. Using a capture-recapture perspective, we show that the loss of information that results from not marking animals is critical, making reliable statistical modeling of N and p problematic using just count data.

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors.

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America.

An integrated population model for bird monitoring in North America.

Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a unified framework for simultaneously analyzing data sets of different types to estimate vital rates, population size, and dynamics; assess contributions of demographic parameters to population changes; and assess population viability. Strengths of an IPM include the ability to estimate latent parameters and improve the precision of parameter estimates. We present a hierarchical IPM that combines two broad-scale avian monitoring data sets: count data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and capture-recapture data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program.

Bayesian cross-validation for model evaluation and selection, with application to the North American Breeding Bird Survey.

The analysis of ecological data has changed in two important ways over the last 15 years. The development and easy availability of Bayesian computational methods has allowed and encouraged the fitting of complex hierarchical models. At the same time, there has been increasing emphasis on acknowledging and accounting for model uncertainty.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980.

Explaining local-scale species distributions: relative contributions of spatial autocorrelation and landscape heterogeneity for an avian assemblage.

Understanding interactions between mobile species distributions and landcover characteristics remains an outstanding challenge in ecology. Multiple factors could explain species distributions including endogenous evolutionary traits leading to conspecific clustering and endogenous habitat features that support life history requirements. Birds are a useful taxon for examining hypotheses about the relative importance of these factors among species in a community.

Global biodiversity: indicators of recent declines.

In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species' population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases.

Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: avian responses to prescribed fire.

Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics.

Microarray analysis of gene expression changes in feeding female and male lone star ticks, Amblyomma americanum (L).

A collection of EST clones from female tick Amblyomma americanum salivary glands was hybridized to RNA from different feeding stages of female tick salivary glands and from unfed or feeding adult male ticks. In the female ticks, the expression patterns changed dramatically upon starting feeding, then changed again towards the end of feeding. On beginning feeding, genes possibly involved in survival on the host increased in expression as did many housekeeping genes.

Seasonal components of avian population change: joint analysis of two large-scale monitoring programs.

We present a combined analysis of data from two large-scale surveys of bird populations. The North American Breeding Bird Survey is conducted each summer; the Christmas Bird Count is conducted in early winter. The temporal staggering of these surveys allows investigation of seasonal components of population change, which we illustrate with an examination of the effects of severe winters on the Carolina Wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus).

Gene expression in male tick salivary glands is affected by feeding in the presence of females.

In this study, we have compared gene expression in the salivary glands of male Dermacentor andersoni ticks fed in the presence or absence of females to that in unfed males. We have established that the patterns of expression are different using arbitrarily primed polymerase chain reaction following reverse transcription of RNA (RAP-PCR) and differential display. Our results indicate a significant difference in salivary gland gene expression between fed and unfed males and also between males fed in the presence of females versus males fed in the absence of females.

Application of RNA interference in tick salivary gland research.

Ticks are obligate ectoparasites that feed on a variety of hosts including mammals, birds and reptiles. Prolonged attachment on the host and an ability to transmit a wide variety of pathogens are the special features of tick feeding. Salivary glands are the major route for secretion of excess fluid, several proteins, and factors that counteract the host immune response and hence play a significant role in the success of tick feeding.

RNAi-mediated gene silencing to assess the role of synaptobrevin and cystatin in tick blood feeding.

In addition to being the conduit for pathogens into hosts, tick saliva contains a broad array of secretory products that facilitate prolonged tick attachment and blood feeding. Proteins found in tick saliva modulate host hemostasis and immune responses. However, it is not clear whether ticks manipulate the immune responses of their hosts by disrupting the antigen-processing pathways of the hosts.

Amblyomma americanum salivary gland homolog of nSec1 is essential for saliva protein secretion.

Soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor proteins assemble in tight core complexes which promote fusion of carrier vesicles with target compartments. Members of this class of proteins are expressed in all eukaryotic cells and distributed in distinct subcellular compartments. All vesicle transport mechanisms known to date have an essential requirement for a member of the Sec1 protein family, including the nSec1 in regulated exocytosis.

The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability.

In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al.

A proteomics approach to characterizing tick salivary secretions.

The saliva of ticks contains a complex mixture of bioactive molecules including proteins that modulate host responses ensuring successful feeding. The limited amount of saliva that can be obtained from ticks has hampered characterization of salivary proteins using traditional protein chemistry. Recent improvements in two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, mass spectrometry, and bioinformatics provide new tools to characterize small amounts of protein.

Amblyomma americanum salivary glands: double-stranded RNA-mediated gene silencing of synaptobrevin homologue and inhibition of PGE2 stimulated protein secretion.

Protein secretion into the saliva from the tick salivary glands is due to exocytosis of vesicular membrane bound granular material regulated by SNARE complex proteins after salivary gland stimulation by PGE2 [Insect Biochem. Mol. Biol.

Disruption of Ixodes scapularis anticoagulation by using RNA interference.

Ixodes scapularis ticks transmit many pathogens, including Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, and Babesia microti. Vaccines directed against arthropod proteins injected into the host during tick engorgement could prevent numerous infectious diseases. Salp14, a salivary anticoagulant, poses a key target for such intervention.

RNA interference: applicability in tick research.

The rapid development of new genetic tools has boosted the gene discovery machinery. RNA interference (RNAi), a gene silencing process, has been recently used in several eukaryotic organisms to elucidate the function(s) of unknown genes and biochemical pathways. We used the dsRNA technique in Amlyomma americanum female ticks to test the applicability of the RNAi approach in ticks.

A proteomics approach to characterizing tick salivary secretions.

The saliva of ticks contains a complex mixture of bioactive molecules including proteins that modulate host responses ensuring successful feeding. The limited amount of saliva that can be obtained from ticks has hampered characterization of salivary proteins using traditional protein chemistry. Recent improvements in two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, mass spectrometry, and bioinformatics provide new tools to characterize small amounts of protein.