Sensitivity of endemic behaviour of COVID-19 under a multi-dose vaccination regime, to various biological parameters and control variables.

For an infectious disease such as COVID-19, we present a new four-stage vaccination model (unvaccinated, dose 1 + 2, booster, repeated boosters), which examines the impact of vaccination coverage, vaccination rate, generation interval, control reproduction number, vaccine efficacies and rates of waning immunity upon the dynamics of infection. We derive a single equation that allows computation of equilibrium prevalence and incidence of infection, given knowledge about these parameters and variable values. Based upon a 20-compartment model, we develop a numerical simulation of the associated differential equations.

The scale and dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics across Europe.

The number of COVID-19 deaths reported from European countries has varied more than 100-fold. In terms of coronavirus transmission, the relatively low death rates in some countries could be due to low intrinsic (e.g.

Sensitivity of UK Covid-19 deaths to the timing of suppression measures and their relaxation.

In this paper I examine the sensitivity of total UK Covid-19 deaths and the demand for intensive care and ward beds, to the timing and duration of suppression periods during a 500- day period. This is achieved via a SEIR model. Using an expected latent period of 4.