The development of terrestrial ecosystems emerging after glacier retreat.

The global retreat of glaciers is dramatically altering mountain and high-latitude landscapes, with new ecosystems developing from apparently barren substrates. The study of these emerging ecosystems is critical to understanding how climate change interacts with microhabitat and biotic communities and determines the future of ice-free terrains. Here, using a comprehensive characterization of ecosystems (soil properties, microclimate, productivity and biodiversity by environmental DNA metabarcoding) across 46 proglacial landscapes worldwide, we found that all the environmental properties change with time since glaciers retreated, and that temperature modulates the accumulation of soil nutrients.

Human activities are intensifying the spatial variation of landslides in the Yellow River Basin.

Human activities are a triggering factor for landslides in the Yellow River Basin (YRB, China). However, the extent to which the spatial distribution of landslides is affected by human activities is unclear. We constructed a human activity intensity index (HAII) based on nighttime light data and land cover data.

Dynamics and drivers of mycorrhizal fungi after glacier retreat.

The development of terrestrial ecosystems depends greatly on plant mutualists such as mycorrhizal fungi. The global retreat of glaciers exposes nutrient-poor substrates in extreme environments and provides a unique opportunity to study early successions of mycorrhizal fungi by assessing their dynamics and drivers. We combined environmental DNA metabarcoding and measurements of local conditions to assess the succession of mycorrhizal communities during soil development in 46 glacier forelands around the globe, testing whether dynamics and drivers differ between mycorrhizal types.

Local climate modulates the development of soil nematode communities after glacier retreat.

The worldwide retreat of glaciers is causing a faster than ever increase in ice-free areas that are leading to the emergence of new ecosystems. Understanding the dynamics of these environments is critical to predicting the consequences of climate change on mountains and at high latitudes. Climatic differences between regions of the world could modulate the emergence of biodiversity and functionality after glacier retreat, yet global tests of this hypothesis are lacking.

The importance of species addition 'versus' replacement varies over succession in plant communities after glacier retreat.

The mechanisms underlying plant succession remain highly debated. Due to the local scope of most studies, we lack a global quantification of the relative importance of species addition 'versus' replacement. We assessed the role of these processes in the variation (β-diversity) of plant communities colonizing the forelands of 46 retreating glaciers worldwide, using both environmental DNA and traditional surveys.

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900.

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021.

A multi-hazard map-based flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Iran.

We used three state-of-the-art machine learning techniques (boosted regression tree, random forest, and support vector machine) to produce a multi-hazard (MHR) map illustrating areas susceptible to flooding, gully erosion, forest fires, and earthquakes in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran. The earthquake hazard map was derived from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The mean decrease Gini (MDG) method was implemented to determine the relative importance of effective factors on the spatial occurrence of each of the four hazards.

The cyclic expansion and contraction characteristics of a loess slope and implications for slope stability.

Loess covers approximately 6.6% of China and forms thick extensive deposits in the northern and northwestern parts of the country. Natural erosional processes and human modification of thick loess deposits have produced abundant, potentially unstable steep slopes in this region.

Topsoil organic matter build-up in glacier forelands around the world.

Since the last glacial maximum, soil formation related to ice-cover shrinkage has been one major sink of carbon accumulating as soil organic matter (SOM), a phenomenon accelerated by the ongoing global warming. In recently deglacierized forelands, processes of SOM accumulation, including those that control carbon and nitrogen sequestration rates and biogeochemical stability of newly sequestered carbon, remain poorly understood. Here, we investigate the build-up of SOM during the initial stages (up to 410 years) of topsoil development in 10 glacier forelands distributed on four continents.

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Machine Learning Algorithms and Remote Sensing Data in a Tropical Environment.

We used AdaBoost (AB), alternating decision tree (ADTree), and their combination as an ensemble model (AB-ADTree) to spatially predict landslides in the Cameron Highlands, Malaysia. The models were trained with a database of 152 landslides compiled using Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry, Google Earth images, and field surveys, and 17 conditioning factors (slope, aspect, elevation, distance to road, distance to river, proximity to fault, road density, river density, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, land cover, lithology, soil types, curvature, profile curvature, stream power index, and topographic wetness index). We carried out the validation process using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and several parametric and non-parametric performance metrics, including positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, root mean square error, and the Friedman and Wilcoxon sign rank tests.

Observations on the May 2019 Joffre Peak landslides, British Columbia.

Two catastrophic landslides occurred in quick succession on 13 and 16 May 2019, from the north face of Joffre Peak, Cerise Creek, southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia. With headscarps at 2560 m and 2690 m elevation, both began as rock avalanches, rapidly transforming into debris flows along middle Cerise Creek, and finally into debris floods affecting the fan. Beyond the fan margin, a flood surge on Cayoosh Creek reached bankfull and attenuated rapidly downstream; only fine sediment reached Duffey Lake.

Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Mapping: A Comparison between Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine Algorithms.

Shallow landslides damage buildings and other infrastructure, disrupt agriculture practices, and can cause social upheaval and loss of life. As a result, many scientists study the phenomenon, and some of them have focused on producing landslide susceptibility maps that can be used by land-use managers to reduce injury and damage. This paper contributes to this effort by comparing the power and effectiveness of five machine learning, benchmark algorithms-Logistic Model Tree, Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes Tree, Artificial Neural Network, and Support Vector Machine-in creating a reliable shallow landslide susceptibility map for Bijar City in Kurdistan province, Iran.

Lithostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic data from late Cenozoic glacial and proglacial sequences underlying the Altiplano at La Paz, Bolivia.

We provide lithostratigraphic and magnetostratigraphic data derived from a Plio-Pleistocene continental sediment sequence underlying the Altiplano plateau at La Paz, Bolivia. The record comprises six sections along the upper Río La Paz valley, totaling over one kilometre of exposure and forming a ~20-km transect oblique to the adjacent Cordillera Real. Lithostratigraphic characterization includes lithologic and stratigraphic descriptions of units and their contacts.

Multiple tropical Andean glaciations during a period of late Pliocene warmth.

The extent and behaviour of glaciers during the mid-Piacenzian warm period illustrate the sensitivity of the cryosphere to atmospheric CO concentrations above pre-industrial levels. Knowledge of glaciation during this period is restricted to globally or regionally averaged records from marine sediments and to sparse terrestrial glacial deposits in mid-to-high latitudes. Here we expand the Pliocene glacial record to the tropics by reporting recurrent large-scale glaciation in the Bolivian Andes based on stratigraphic and paleomagnetic analysis of a 95-m sequence of glacial sediments underlying the 2.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty.

Concordance of Cornell medical index self-reports to structured clinical assessment for the identification of physical health status.

Self-reported questionnaires are frequently used to assess health status in epidemiological studies. The Cornell medical index is one such tool used to determine the presence of physical and psychiatric illness but its accuracy and value have been questioned. In this study we have assessed the ability of the CMI to predict health status in two separate patient populations (n = 101, 88) by comparison to a structured medical assessment based on the SENIEUR protocol by two physicians.

Effects of death within 11 years on cognitive performance in old age.

Six different cognitive tests and the Heck Depression Inventory (BDI) were given to 3,572 active community residents aged 49 to 93 years. Causes of death were ascertained for 443 who died between 36 and 3,903 days later. Subsequent survival predicted test scores during the 3,903 days and independently during Days 36 to 1,826 and Days 1,827 to 3,903.

Predictors of outcome following hip fracture. Admission time predicts length of stay and in-hospital mortality.

Many factors may contribute to the mortality and morbidity following hip fracture, including the provision of care. We wished to examine the contribution of potential factors to in-hospital mortality, length of hospital stay and 90-day mortality by statistical analyses of an audit database of all hip fractures admitted to a teaching hospital following the introduction of a fast track admission system. In-hospital mortality was predicted by ASA grade, the presence of any complications, cardiovascular complications, grade of surgeon, operation type and shorter admission time, a measure of time taken to admit a patient to a hospital bed (P<0.