Publications by authors named "John Carlin"

Background: Following reduction of public health and social measures concurrent with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron emergence in late 2021 in Australia, COVID-19 case notification rates rose rapidly. As rates of direct viral testing and reporting dropped, true infection rates were most likely to be underestimated.

Objective: To better understand infection rates and immunity in this population, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Australians aged 0-19 years.

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Background: Missing data are common in observational studies and often occur in several of the variables required when estimating a causal effect, i.e. the exposure, outcome and/or variables used to control for confounding.

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Background: Long-term effects of early, recurrent human exposure to general anaesthesia remain unknown. The Australasian Cystic Fibrosis Bronchoalveolar Lavage (ACFBAL) trial provided an opportunity to examine this issue in children randomly assigned in infancy to either repeated bronchoalveolar-lavage (BAL)-directed therapy with general anaesthesia or standard care with no planned lavages up to 5 years of age when all children received BAL-directed therapy under general anaesthesia.

Methods: This multicentre, randomised, open-label phase 4 trial (CF-GAIN) used the original ACFBAL trial randomisation at 3·6 months (SD 1·6) to BAL-directed therapy or standard-care groups to assess the impact of general anaesthesia exposures over early childhood.

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The Timing of Primary Surgery (TOPS) trial was published August 2023 in the New England Journal of Medicine and is a milestone achievement for a study focused on cleft palate. Due to the complexity of outcome reporting in cleft and the rarity of such comparative trials, TOPS presents a useful opportunity to critically review the design, analysis and reporting strategies utilised. This perspective article focused on the inclusion of participants, the choice of the primary outcome measure and the analysis of ordinal data within the trial.

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In the context of missing data, the identifiability or "recoverability" of the average causal effect (ACE) depends not only on the usual causal assumptions but also on missingness assumptions that can be depicted by adding variable-specific missingness indicators to causal diagrams, creating missingness directed acyclic graphs (m-DAGs). Previous research described canonical m-DAGs, representing typical multivariable missingness mechanisms in epidemiological studies, and examined mathematically the recoverability of the ACE in each case. However, this work assumed no effect modification and did not investigate methods for estimation across such scenarios.

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Targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) is increasingly used for doubly robust causal inference, but how missing data should be handled when using TMLE with data-adaptive approaches is unclear. Based on data (1992-1998) from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, we conducted a simulation study to evaluate 8 missing-data methods in this context: complete-case analysis, extended TMLE incorporating an outcome-missingness model, the missing covariate missing indicator method, and 5 multiple imputation (MI) approaches using parametric or machine-learning models. We considered 6 scenarios that varied in terms of exposure/outcome generation models (presence of confounder-confounder interactions) and missingness mechanisms (whether outcome influenced missingness in other variables and presence of interaction/nonlinear terms in missingness models).

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Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular method for handling missing data. Auxiliary variables can be added to the imputation model(s) to improve MI estimates. However, the choice of which auxiliary variables to include is not always straightforward.

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Background: Case-cohort studies are conducted within cohort studies, with the defining feature that collection of exposure data is limited to a subset of the cohort, leading to a large proportion of missing data by design. Standard analysis uses inverse probability weighting (IPW) to address this intended missing data, but little research has been conducted into how best to perform analysis when there is also unintended missingness. Multiple imputation (MI) has become a default standard for handling unintended missingness and is typically used in combination with IPW to handle the intended missingness due to the case-control sampling.

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To describe characteristics and outcomes of children requiring intensive care therapy (ICT) within 12 hours following a medical emergency team (MET) event. Retrospective cohort study. Quaternary paediatric hospital.

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Every year, an estimated 21 million girls aged 15-19 years become pregnant in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Policy responses have focused on reducing the adolescent birth rate whereas efforts to support pregnant adolescents have developed more slowly. We did a systematic review of interventions addressing any health-related outcome for pregnant adolescents and their newborn babies in LMICs and mapped its results to a framework describing high-quality health systems for pregnant adolescents.

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Background: An increasing body of evidence supports associations between inflammation and mental health difficulties, but the onset and directionality of these relationships are unclear.

Methods: Data sources: Barwon Infant Study (BIS; n = 500 4-year-olds) and Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC; n = 1099 10-13-year-olds).

Measures: Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire emotional symptoms at 4, 10-11 and 12-13 years, and circulating levels of two inflammatory biomarkers, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and glycoprotein acetyls (GlycA), at 4 and 11-12 years.

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Importance: The long-term effects of surfactant administration via a thin catheter (minimally invasive surfactant therapy [MIST]) in preterm infants with respiratory distress syndrome remain to be definitively clarified.

Objective: To examine the effect of MIST on death or neurodevelopmental disability (NDD) at 2 years' corrected age.

Design, Setting, And Participants: Follow-up study of a randomized clinical trial with blinding of clinicians and outcome assessors conducted in 33 tertiary-level neonatal intensive care units in 11 countries.

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Objectives: To (1) describe the dispensing of asthma preventers at hospital discharge and estimate its effect on hospital readmissions, and (2) estimate the effect of community asthma preventer dispensing on readmissions for the subgroup of children who were not prescribed an asthma preventer at discharge.

Design: Multisite cohort study with linked administrative data.

Participants: Children aged 3-18 years admitted with asthma to a tertiary paediatric, mixed paediatric and adult, or regional hospital between 2017 and 2018.

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Background: Blinding of treatment allocation from treating clinicians in neonatal randomised controlled trials can minimise performance bias, but its effectiveness is rarely assessed.

Methods: To examine the effectiveness of blinding a procedural intervention from treating clinicians in a multicentre randomised controlled trial of minimally invasive surfactant therapy versus sham treatment in preterm infants of gestation 25-28 weeks with respiratory distress syndrome. The intervention (minimally invasive surfactant therapy or sham) was performed behind a screen within the first 6 h of life by a 'study team' uninvolved in clinical care including decision-making.

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Personality reliably predicts life outcomes ranging from social and material resources to mental health and interpersonal capacities. However, little is known about the potential intergenerational impact of parent personality prior to offspring conception on family resources and child development across the first thousand days of life. We analysed data from the Victorian Intergenerational Health Cohort Study (665 parents, 1030 infants; est.

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Background: Despite recent advances in causal inference methods, outcome regression remains the most widely used approach for estimating causal effects in epidemiological studies with a single-point exposure and outcome. Missing data are common in these studies, and complete-case analysis (CCA) and multiple imputation (MI) are two frequently used methods for handling them. In randomised controlled trials (RCTs), it has been shown that MI should be conducted separately by treatment group.

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Researchers faced with incomplete data are encouraged to consider whether their data are 'missing completely at random' (MCAR), 'missing at random' (MAR) or 'missing not at random' (MNAR) when planning their analysis. However, there are two major problems with this classification as originally defined by Rubin in the 1970s. First, when there are missing data in multiple variables, the plausibility of the MAR assumption is difficult to assess using substantive knowledge and is more stringent than is generally appreciated.

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Introduction: Observational studies in health-related research often aim to answer causal questions. Missing data are common in these studies and often occur in multiple variables, such as the exposure, outcome and/or variables used to control for confounding. The standard classification of missing data as missing completely at random, missing at random (MAR) or missing not at random does not allow for a clear assessment of missingness assumptions when missingness arises in more than one variable.

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Objectives: To (1) describe primary health care utilization and (2) estimate the effect of primary care early follow-up, continuity, regularity, frequency, and long consultations on asthma hospital readmission, including secondary outcomes of emergency (ED) presentations, asthma preventer adherence, and use of rescue oral corticosteroids within 12 months.

Methods: An Australian multi-site cohort study of 767 children aged 3-18 years admitted with asthma between 2017 and 2018, followed up for at least 12 months with outcome and primary care exposure data obtained through linked administrative datasets. We estimated the effect of primary care utilization through a modified Poisson regression adjusting for child age, asthma severity, socioeconomic status and self-reported GP characteristics.

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Article Synopsis
  • The study aims to analyze adrenarche by examining adrenal hormone levels in children transitioning to adolescence, focusing on timing and tempo of hormonal changes.
  • Researchers utilized data from the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study, involving 1239 participants, and assessed hormones like DHEA and testosterone through saliva samples over several years.
  • Results indicated that individual differences in hormone timing at age 9 were more significant than tempo in predicting adrenal hormone levels in early adolescence, particularly highlighting higher levels in females compared to males.
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Three-level data arising from repeated measures on individuals clustered within higher-level units are common in medical research. A complexity arises when individuals change clusters over time, resulting in a cross-classified data structure. Missing values in these studies are commonly handled via multiple imputation (MI).

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