High-resolution data are necessary to understand the effects of climate on plant population dynamics of a forest herb.

Climate is assumed to strongly influence species distribution and abundance. Although the performance of many organisms is influenced by the climate in their immediate proximity, the climate data used to model their distributions often have a coarse spatial resolution. This is problematic because the local climate experienced by individuals might deviate substantially from the regional average.

Aging varies greatly within a single genus: A demographic study of Rhododendron spp. in botanic gardens.

Premise: There is mounting evidence that age matters in plant demography, but also indications that relationships between age and demographic rates may vary significantly among species. Age-based plant demographic data, however, are time-consuming to collect and still lacking for most species, and little is known about general patterns across species or what may drive differences.

Methods: We used individual birth and death records for 12 Rhododendron species from botanic gardens and conducted Bayesian survival trajectory analyses to assess how mortality changed with age.

Spring and autumn phenology in an understory herb are uncorrelated and driven by different factors.

Premise: Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life-history events, temperature, and plant-resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals.

Methods: We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf-out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long-lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology.

Pollen limitation in a single year is not compensated by future reproduction.

Seed production is critical to the persistence of most flowering plant populations, but may be strongly pollen limited. To what extent long-lived plants can compensate pollen limitation by increasing future reproduction is poorly understood. We tested for compensation in two Dactylorhiza species that differ in reproductive investment by experimentally reducing and increasing pollination in two independent annual cohorts and monitoring demographic responses in the subsequent 2 years for the 2014 cohort and in 1 year for the 2015 cohort.

Biotic and anthropogenic forces rival climatic/abiotic factors in determining global plant population growth and fitness.

Multiple, simultaneous environmental changes, in climatic/abiotic factors, interacting species, and direct human influences, are impacting natural populations and thus biodiversity, ecosystem services, and evolutionary trajectories. Determining whether the magnitudes of the population impacts of abiotic, biotic, and anthropogenic drivers differ, accounting for their direct effects and effects mediated through other drivers, would allow us to better predict population fates and design mitigation strategies. We compiled 644 paired values of the population growth rate () from high and low levels of an identified driver from demographic studies of terrestrial plants.

Sex and the cost of reproduction through the life course of an extremely long-lived herb.

Despite being central concepts for life history theory, little is known about how reproductive effort and costs vary with individual age once plants have started to reproduce. We conducted a 5-year field study and estimated age-dependent reproductive effort for both sexes in the extraordinarily long-lived dioecious plant Borderea pyrenaica. We also evaluated costs of reproduction on vital rates for male and female plants, both by examining effects of differences in individual reproductive effort under natural conditions, and by conducting a flower removal experiment, aimed at decreasing reproductive effort.

Demographic senescence and effects on population dynamics of a perennial plant.

Demographic rates in plants are usually assumed to be more stage or size dependent than age dependent, and aging is therefore not considered in demographic models. However, little is known about the effect of age on demographic rates, as there still are few studies based on long-term individual-based plant population data that consider both individual age and size. In addition, little is known about how aging of individuals may affect population dynamics.

Data gaps and opportunities for comparative and conservation biology.

Biodiversity loss is a major challenge. Over the past century, the average rate of vertebrate extinction has been about 100-fold higher than the estimated background rate and population declines continue to increase globally. Birth and death rates determine the pace of population increase or decline, thus driving the expansion or extinction of a species.

Plant-herbivore synchrony and selection on plant flowering phenology.

Temporal variation in natural selection has profound effects on the evolutionary trajectories of populations. One potential source of variation in selection is that differences in thermal reaction norms and temperature influence the relative phenology of interacting species. We manipulated the phenology of the butterfly herbivore Anthocharis cardamines relative to genetically identical populations of its host plant, Cardamine pratensis, and examined the effects on butterfly preferences and selection acting on the host plant.

Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants.

The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant.

Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models.

Forest succession and population viability of grassland plants: long repayment of extinction debt in Primula veris.

Time lags in responses of organisms to deteriorating environmental conditions delay population declines and extinctions. We examined how local processes at the population level contribute to extinction debt, and how cycles of habitat deterioration and recovery may delay extinction. We carried out a demographic analysis of the fate of the grassland perennial Primula veris after the cessation of grassland management, where we used either a unidirectional succession model for forest habitat or a rotation model with a period of forest growth followed by a clear-cut and a new successional cycle.

Flowering schedule in a perennial plant; life-history trade-offs, seed predation, and total offspring fitness.

Optimal timing of reproduction within a season may be influenced by several abiotic and biotic factors. These factors sometimes affect different components of fitness, making assessments of net selection difficult. We used estimates of offspring fitness to examine how pre-dispersal seed predation influences selection on flowering schedule in an herb with a bimodal flowering pattern, Actaea spicata.

Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb.

Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus.

Diversity of ageing across the tree of life.

Evolution drives, and is driven by, demography. A genotype moulds its phenotype's age patterns of mortality and fertility in an environment; these two patterns in turn determine the genotype's fitness in that environment. Hence, to understand the evolution of ageing, age patterns of mortality and reproduction need to be compared for species across the tree of life.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions.

Nonlinear relationships between vital rates and state variables in demographic models.

To accurately estimate population dynamics and viability, structured population models account for among-individual differences in demographic parameters that are related to individual state. In the widely used matrix models, such differences are incorporated in terms of discrete state categories, whereas integral projection models (IPMs) use continuous state variables to avoid artificial classes. In IPMs, and sometimes also in matrix models, parameterization is based on regressions that do not always model nonlinear relationships between demographic parameters and state variables.

Population size affects vital rates but not population growth rate of a perennial plant.

Negative effects of habitat fragmentation on individual performance have been widely documented, but relatively little is known about how simultaneous effects on multiple vital rates translate into effects on population viability in long-lived species. In this study, we examined relationships between population size, individual growth, survival and reproduction, and population growth rate in the perennial plant Phyteuma spicatum. Population size positively affected the growth of seedlings, the survival of juveniles, the proportion of adults flowering, and potential seed production.

Alternative regression methods are not considered in Murtaugh (2009) or by ecologists in general.

Murtaugh (2009) recently illustrated that all subsets variable selection is very similar to stepwise regression. This, however, does not necessarily mean both methods are useful. On the contrary, the same problems with overfitting should apply.

Novel antagonistic interactions associated with plant polyploidization influence trait selection and habitat preference.

Polyploidization is an important mechanism for sympatric speciation in plants. Still, we know little about whether plant polyploidization leads to insect host shifts, and if novel interactions influence habitat and trait selection in plants. We investigated herbivory by the flower bud gall-forming midge Dasineura cardaminis on tetraploids and octoploids of the herb Cardamine pratensis.

Variation in vegetative and flowering phenology in a forest herb caused by environmental heterogeneity.

Timing of seasonal plant development can affect biotic interactions and plant fitness. Phenology is governed largely by temperature and may therefore be affected by global climate warming, making this an important area of research. Several factors in addition to temperature may cause differences in phenology.