Free and Modified Mycotoxins in Organic and Conventional Oats ( L.) Grown in Scotland.

Small grain cereals are frequently infected with mycotoxigenic fungi. Oats have a particularly high risk of contamination with type A trichothecene mycotoxins; their glucoside conjugates have also been reported. Agronomy practices, cereal variety and weather conditions have been suggested to play a role in infection in oats.

Timing of daily calorie loading affects appetite and hunger responses without changes in energy metabolism in healthy subjects with obesity.

Morning loaded calorie intake in humans has been advocated as a dietary strategy to improve weight loss. This is also supported by animal studies suggesting time of eating can prevent weight gain. However, the underlying mechanisms through which timing of eating could promote weight loss in humans are unclear.

A Novel Estimation of Unobserved Pig Growth Traits for the Purposes of Precision Feeding Methods.

Recent technological advances make it possible to deliver feeding strategies that can be tailored to the needs of individual pigs in order to optimise the allocation of nutrient resources and contribute toward reducing excess nutrient excretion. However, these efforts are currently hampered by the challenges associated with: (1) estimation of unobserved traits from the available data on bodyweight and feed consumption; and (2) characterisation of the distributions and correlations of these unobserved traits to generate accurate estimates of individual level variation among pigs. Here, alternative quantitative approaches to these challenges, based on the principles of inverse modelling and separately inferring individual level distributions within a Bayesian context were developed and incorporated in a proposed precision feeding modelling framework.

How do pigs deal with dietary phosphorus deficiency?

Feeding strategies for growing monogastric livestock (particularly pigs) must focus on maximising animal performance, while attempting to reduce environmental P load. Achieving these goals requires a comprehensive understanding of how different P feeding strategies affect animal responses and an ability to predict P retention. Although along with Ca, P is the most researched macromineral in pig nutrition, knowledge gaps still exist in relation to: (1) the effects of P feed content on feed intake (FI); (2) the impact of P intake on body composition; (3) the distribution of absorbed P to pools within the body.

Bayesian, Likelihood-Free Modelling of Phenotypic Plasticity and Variability in Individuals and Populations.

There is a paradigm shift from the traditional focus on the "average" individual towards the definition and analysis of trait variation within individual life-history and among individuals in populations. This is a result of increasing availability of individual phenotypic data. The shift allows the use of genetic and environment-driven variations to assess robustness to challenge, gain greater understanding of organismal biological processes, or deliver individual-targeted treatments or genetic selection.

Do not neglect calcium: a systematic review and meta-analysis (meta-regression) of its digestibility and utilisation in growing and finishing pigs.

Ca digestibility and utilisation in growing pigs are not well understood, and are usually neglected in diet formulation. This has implications not only for the accurate determination of its requirements but also for its interactions with other nutrients. A systematic review and meta-analysis (meta-regression) of published trials was carried out to quantify factors affecting Ca absorption and utilisation, and to derive an estimate of Ca endogenous excretion.

Market analyses of livestock trade networks to inform the prevention of joint economic and epidemiological risks.

Conventional epidemiological studies of infections spreading through trade networks, e.g., via livestock movements, generally show that central large-size holdings (hubs) should be preferentially surveyed and controlled in order to reduce epidemic spread.

Epidemics in markets with trade friction and imperfect transactions.

Market trade-routes can support infectious-disease transmission, impacting biological populations and even disrupting trade that conduces the disease. Epidemiological models increasingly account for reductions in infectious contact, such as risk-aversion behaviour in response to pathogen outbreaks. However, responses in market dynamics clearly differ from simple risk aversion, as are driven by other motivation and conditioned by "friction" constraints (a term we borrow from labour economics).

Estimating the delay between host infection and disease (incubation period) and assessing its significance to the epidemiology of plant diseases.

Knowledge of the incubation period of infectious diseases (time between host infection and expression of disease symptoms) is crucial to our epidemiological understanding and the design of appropriate prevention and control policies. Plant diseases cause substantial damage to agricultural and arboricultural systems, but there is still very little information about how the incubation period varies within host populations. In this paper, we focus on the incubation period of soilborne plant pathogens, which are difficult to detect as they spread and infect the hosts underground and above-ground symptoms occur considerably later.

Host growth can cause invasive spread of crops by soilborne pathogens.

Invasive soilborne plant pathogens cause substantial damage to crops and natural populations, but our understanding of how to prevent their epidemics or reduce their damage is limited. A key and experimentally-tested concept in the epidemiology of soilborne plant diseases is that of a threshold spacing between hosts below which epidemics (invasive spread) can occur. We extend this paradigm by examining how plant-root growth may alter the conditions for occurrence of soilborne pathogen epidemics in plant populations.

Landscape epidemiology and control of pathogens with cryptic and long-distance dispersal: sudden oak death in northern Californian forests.

Exotic pathogens and pests threaten ecosystem service, biodiversity, and crop security globally. If an invasive agent can disperse asymptomatically over long distances, multiple spatial and temporal scales interplay, making identification of effective strategies to regulate, monitor, and control disease extremely difficult. The management of outbreaks is also challenged by limited data on the actual area infested and the dynamics of spatial spread, due to financial, technological, or social constraints.

Loss of population levels of immunity to malaria as a result of exposure-reducing interventions: consequences for interpretation of disease trends.

Background: The persistence of malaria as an endemic infection and one of the major causes of childhood death in most parts of Africa has lead to a radical new call for a global effort towards eradication. With the deployment of a highly effective vaccine still some years away, there has been an increased focus on interventions which reduce exposure to infection in the individual and -by reducing onward transmission-at the population level. The development of appropriate monitoring of these interventions requires an understanding of the timescales of their effect.

The natural progression of Gambiense sleeping sickness: what is the evidence?

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, sleeping sickness) is widely assumed to be 100% pathogenic and fatal. However, reports to the contrary exist, and human trypano-tolerance has been postulated. Furthermore, there is uncertainty about the actual duration of both stage 1 and stage 2 infection, particularly with respect to how long a patient remains infectious.

Effect of single-dose ivermectin on Onchocerca volvulus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The broad-spectrum antiparasitic drug ivermectin was licensed for use against onchocerciasis in 1987, yet the mechanisms by which it exerts a fast decrease and long-lasting suppression of Onchocerca volvulus microfilaridermia, and inhibition of microfilarial release by female worms remain largely unknown. A better understanding of the effects of ivermectin on O volvulus microfilariae and macrofilariae is crucial to improve our ability to predict the long-term effect of treatment. We did a systematic review of individual and population-based ivermectin trials to investigate the temporal dynamics of the drug's microfilaricidal and embryostatic efficacy after administration of a single, standard dose (150 microg/kg).

Estimates of the duration of the early and late stage of gambiense sleeping sickness.

Background: The durations of untreated stage 1 (early stage, haemo-lymphatic) and stage 2 (late stage, meningo-encephalitic) human African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) due to Trypanosoma brucei gambiense are poorly quantified, but key to predicting the impact of screening on transmission. Here, we outline a method to estimate these parameters.

Methods: We first model the duration of stage 1 through survival analysis of untreated serological suspects detected during Médecins Sans Frontières interventions in Uganda and Sudan.

Determination of the processes driving the acquisition of immunity to malaria using a mathematical transmission model.

Acquisition of partially protective immunity is a dominant feature of the epidemiology of malaria among exposed individuals. The processes that determine the acquisition of immunity to clinical disease and to asymptomatic carriage of malaria parasites are poorly understood, in part because of a lack of validated immunological markers of protection. Using mathematical models, we seek to better understand the processes that determine observed epidemiological patterns.

Density dependence and the control of helminth parasites.

1. The transient dynamics and stability of a population are determined by the interplay between species density, its spatial distribution and the positive and negative density-dependent processes regulating population growth. 2.

Human infection patterns and heterogeneous exposure in river blindness.

Here we analyze patterns of human infection with Onchocerca volvulus (the cause of river blindness) in different continents and ecologies. In contrast with some geohelminths and schistosome parasites whose worm burdens typically exhibit a humped pattern with host age, patterns of O. volvulus infection vary markedly with locality.