Bringing new tools, a regional focus, resource-sensitivity, local engagement and necessary discipline to mental health policy and planning.

Background: While reducing the burden of mental and substance use disorders is a global challenge, it is played out locally. Mental disorders have early ages of onset, syndromal complexity and high individual variability in course and response to treatment. As most locally-delivered health systems do not account for this complexity in their design, implementation, scale or evaluation they often result in disappointing impacts.

'Turning the tide' on hyperglycemia in pregnancy: insights from multiscale dynamic simulation modeling.

Introduction: Hyperglycemia in pregnancy (HIP, including gestational diabetes and pre-existing type 1 and type 2 diabetes) is increasing, with associated risks to the health of women and their babies. Strategies to manage and prevent this condition are contested. Dynamic simulation models (DSM) can test policy and program scenarios before implementation in the real world.

Policy options for endgame planning in tobacco control: a simulation modelling study.

Objective: To investigate the potential impacts of several tobacco control interventions on adult daily smoking prevalence in the Australian state of Queensland, using a system dynamics model codeveloped with local and national stakeholders.

Methods: Eight intervention scenarios were simulated and compared with a reference scenario (business as usual), in which all tobacco control measures currently in place are maintained unchanged until the end of the simulation period (31 December 2037).

Findings: Under the business as usual scenario, adult daily smoking prevalence is projected to decline from 11.

Turning conceptual systems maps into dynamic simulation models: An Australian case study for diabetes in pregnancy.

Background: System science approaches are increasingly used to explore complex public health problems. Quantitative methods, such as participatory dynamic simulation modelling, can mobilise knowledge to inform health policy decisions. However, the analytic and practical steps required to turn collaboratively developed, qualitative system maps into rigorous and policy-relevant quantified dynamic simulation models are not well described.

Resolving the paradox of increased mental health expenditure and stable prevalence.

A doubling of Australian expenditure on mental health services over two decades, inflation-adjusted, has reduced prevalence of neither psychological distress nor mental disorders. Low rates of help-seeking, and inadequate and inequitable delivery of effective care may explain this partially, but not fully. Focusing on depressive disorders, drawing initially on ideas from the work of philosopher and socio-cultural critic Ivan Illich, we use evidence-based medicine statistics and simulation modelling approaches to develop testable hypotheses as to how iatrogenic influences on the course of depression may help explain this seeming paradox.

Improving the quality of healthcare: a cross-sectional study of the features of successful clinical networks.

Objectives: Networks of clinical experts are being established internationally to help embed evidence based care in health systems. There is emerging evidence that these clinical networks can drive quality improvement programs, but the features that distinguish successful networks are largely unknown. We examined the factors that make clinical networks effective at improving quality of care and facilitating system-wide changes.

Decision makers' experience of participatory dynamic simulation modelling: methods for public health policy.

Background: Systems science methods such as dynamic simulation modelling are well suited to address questions about public health policy as they consider the complexity, context and dynamic nature of system-wide behaviours. Advances in technology have led to increased accessibility and interest in systems methods to address complex health policy issues. However, the involvement of policy decision makers in health-related simulation model development has been lacking.

Impacts of licensed premises trading hour policies on alcohol-related harms.

Background And Aim: Evaluations of alcohol policy changes demonstrate that restriction of trading hours of both 'on'- and 'off'-licence venues can be an effective means of reducing rates of alcohol-related harm. Despite this, the effects of different trading hour policy options over time, accounting for different contexts and demographic characteristics, and the common co-occurrence of other harm reduction strategies in trading hour policy initiatives, are difficult to estimate. The aim of this study was to use dynamic simulation modelling to compare estimated impacts over time of a range of trading hour policy options on various indicators of acute alcohol-related harm.

Harnessing advances in computer simulation to inform policy and planning to reduce alcohol-related harms.

Objectives: Alcohol misuse is a complex systemic problem. The aim of this study was to explore the feasibility of using a transparent and participatory agent-based modelling approach to develop a robust decision support tool to test alcohol policy scenarios before they are implemented in the real world.

Methods: A consortium of Australia's leading alcohol experts was engaged to collaboratively develop an agent-based model of alcohol consumption behaviour and related harms.

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

Background: Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools.

Participatory simulation modelling to inform public health policy and practice: Rethinking the evidence hierarchies.

Drawing on the long tradition of evidence-based medicine that aims to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of clinical practice, the field of public health has sought to apply 'hierarchies of evidence' to appraise and synthesise public health research. Various critiques of this approach led to the development of synthesis methods that include broader evidence typologies and more 'fit for purpose' privileging of methodological designs. While such adaptations offer great utility for evidence-informed public health policy and practice, this paper offers an alternative perspective on the synthesis of evidence that necessitates a yet more egalitarian approach.

Dynamic simulation modelling of policy responses to reduce alcohol-related harms: rationale and procedure for a participatory approach.

Development of effective policy responses to address complex public health problems can be challenged by a lack of clarity about the interaction of risk factors driving the problem, differing views of stakeholders on the most appropriate and effective intervention approaches, a lack of evidence to support commonly implemented and acceptable intervention approaches, and a lack of acceptance of effective interventions. Consequently, political considerations, community advocacy and industry lobbying can contribute to a hotly contested debate about the most appropriate course of action; this can hinder consensus and give rise to policy resistance. The problem of alcohol misuse and its associated harms in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, provides a relevant example of such challenges.

A cluster-randomised controlled trial integrating a community-based water, sanitation and hygiene programme, with mass distribution of albendazole to reduce intestinal parasites in Timor-Leste: the WASH for WORMS research protocol.

Introduction: There is limited evidence demonstrating the benefits of community-based water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) programmes on infections with soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and intestinal protozoa. Our study aims to contribute to that evidence base by investigating the effectiveness of combining two complementary approaches for control of STH: periodic mass administration of albendazole, and delivery of a community-based WASH programme.

Methods And Analysis: WASH for WORMS is a cluster-randomised controlled trial to test the hypothesis that a community-based WASH intervention integrated with periodic mass distribution of albendazole will be more effective in reducing infections with STH and protozoa than mass deworming alone.

Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

Introduction: The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action.

A modelling tool for policy analysis to support the design of efficient and effective policy responses for complex public health problems.

Background: In the design of public health policy, a broader understanding of risk factors for disease across the life course, and an increasing awareness of the social determinants of health, has led to the development of more comprehensive, cross-sectoral strategies to tackle complex problems. However, comprehensive strategies may not represent the most efficient or effective approach to reducing disease burden at the population level. Rather, they may act to spread finite resources less intensively over a greater number of programs and initiatives, diluting the potential impact of the investment.

Impact of "Grain to Green" Programme on echinococcosis infection in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region of China.

Cystic echinococcosis (CE) is endemic among the human population of Xiji County, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China, where the prevalence is estimated to be between 2.2% and 3.6%.