Forecasting the declining rate of chronic hepatitis-B carrier status at a Taiwanese university: twenty years after implementation of an universal HBV vaccination program in Taiwan.

Background: Prior to the introduction of universal hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination in Taiwan in 1984, 15-20% of the general population were chronic HBV carriers.

Methods: We forecasted and quantified the declining HBV carrier rate 20 years subsequent to the implementation of universal HBV vaccination in Taiwan. At a Taiwanese university, 28,763 freshmen tested for serum HBsAg level were divided into ten age cohorts by date of birth, from July 1976 to June 1986 inclusive.