Gaps and opportunities: measuring the key population cascade through surveys and services to guide the HIV response.

Introduction: The UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets to diagnose 90% of people living with HIV, put 90% of them on treatment, and for 90% of them to have suppressed viral load have focused the international HIV response on the goal of eliminating HIV by 2030. They are also a constructive tool for measuring progress toward reaching this goal but their utility is dependent upon data availability. Though more than 25% of new infections are among key populations (KP)- sex workers, men who have sex with men, transgender people, people who inject drugs, and prisoners- and their sex partners, there is a dearth of treatment cascade data for KP.

Know Your Epidemic, Strengthen Your Response: Developing a New HIV Surveillance Architecture to Guide HIV Resource Allocation and Target Decisions.

To guide HIV prevention and treatment activities up to 2020, we need to generate and make better use of high quality HIV surveillance data. To highlight our surveillance needs, a special collection of papers in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance has been released under the title "Improving Global and National Responses to the HIV Epidemic Through High Quality HIV Surveillance Data." We provide a summary of these papers and highlight methods for developing a new HIV surveillance architecture.

Viral Hepatitis Strategic Information to Achieve Elimination by 2030: Key Elements for HIV Program Managers.

Evidence documenting the global burden of disease from viral hepatitis was essential for the World Health Assembly to endorse the first Global Health Sector Strategy (GHSS) on viral hepatitis in May 2016. The GHSS on viral hepatitis proposes to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. The GHSS on viral hepatitis is in line with targets for HIV infection and tuberculosis as part of the Sustainable Development Goals.

HIV Surveillance Among Pregnant Women Attending Antenatal Clinics: Evolution and Current Direction.

Since the late 1980s, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sentinel serosurveillance among pregnant women attending select antenatal clinics (ANCs) based on unlinked anonymous testing (UAT) has provided invaluable information for tracking HIV prevalence and trends and informing global and national HIV models in most countries with generalized HIV epidemics. However, increased coverage of HIV testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT), and antiretroviral therapy has heightened ethical concerns about UAT. PMTCT programs now routinely collect demographic and HIV testing information from the same pregnant women as serosurveillance and therefore present an alternative to UAT-based ANC serosurveillance.

Availability and Quality of Size Estimations of Female Sex Workers, Men Who Have Sex with Men, People Who Inject Drugs and Transgender Women in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Objective: To assess the availability and quality of population size estimations of female sex workers (FSW), men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drug (PWID) and transgender women.

Methods: Size estimation data since 2010 were retrieved from global reporting databases, Global Fund grant application documents, and the peer-reviewed and grey literature. Overall quality and availability were assessed against a defined set of criteria, including estimation methods, geographic coverage, and extrapolation approaches.

Routine feedback of test results to participants in clinic- and survey-based surveillance of HIV.

Surveillance for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in low- and middle-income countries started in the 1980s. However, the questions of whether the results of HIV tests should be given to participants, and if so how, has still not been resolved. In the absence of effective treatment, it was considered acceptable to withhold results from HIV-positive participants.

Outcomes and impact of HIV prevention, ART and TB programs in Swaziland--early evidence from public health triangulation.

Introduction: Swaziland's severe HIV epidemic inspired an early national response since the late 1980s, and regular reporting of program outcomes since the onset of a national antiretroviral treatment (ART) program in 2004. We assessed effectiveness outcomes and mortality trends in relation to ART, HIV testing and counseling (HTC), tuberculosis (TB) and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT).

Methods: Data triangulated include intervention coverage and outcomes according to program registries (2001-2010), hospital admissions and deaths disaggregated by age and sex (2001-2010) and population mortality estimates from the 1997 and 2007 censuses and the 2007 demographic and health survey.

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic.

Background: Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15-24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV.

Methods: Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15-49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe.

Background: In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group.

Antiretroviral therapy needs: the effect of changing global guidelines.

Background: In 2010 the WHO issued a revision of the guidelines on antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection in adults and adolescents. The recommendations included earlier diagnosis and treatment of HIV in the interest of a longer and healthier life. The current analysis explores the impact on the estimates of treatment needs of the new criteria for initiating ART compared with the previous guidelines.

Has the quality of serosurveillance in low- and middle-income countries improved since the last HIV estimates round in 2007? Status and trends through 2009.

Background: HIV surveillance systems aim to monitor trends of HIV infection, the geographical distribution and its magnitude, and the impact of HIV. The quality of HIV surveillance is a key element in determining the uncertainty ranges around HIV estimates. This paper aims to assess the quality of HIV surveillance systems in low- and middle-income countries in 2009 compared with 2007.

Changes in antiretroviral therapy guidelines: implications for public health policy and public purses.

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO) published a revision of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines and now recommends ART for all those with a CD4 cell count ≤350/mm(3), for people with HIV and active tuberculosis (TB) or chronic active hepatitis B irrespective of CD4 cell count and all HIV-positive pregnant women. A study was undertaken to estimate the impact of the new guidelines using four countries as examples.

Methods: The current WHO/UNAIDS country projections were accessed based on the 2007 estimates for Zambia, Kenya, Cameroon and Vietnam.

Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007.

Background: Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund.

Methods: Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.

Estimating HIV Incidence in Populations Using Tests for Recent Infection: Issues, Challenges and the Way Forward.

INTRODUCTION: HIV incidence is the rate of new infections in a population over time. HIV incidence is a critical indicator needed to assess the status and trends of the HIV epidemic in populations and guide and assess the impact of prevention interventions. METHODS: Several methods exist for estimating population-level HIV incidence: direct observation of HIV incidence through longitudinal follow-up of persons at risk for new HIV infection, indirect measurement of HIV incidence using data on HIV prevalence and mortality in a population, and direct measurement of HIV incidence through use of tests for recent infection (TRIs) that can differentiate "recent" from "non-recent" infections based on biomarkers in cross-sectional specimens.

Accuracy of serological assays for detection of recent infection with HIV and estimation of population incidence: a systematic review.

We systematically reviewed the accuracy of serological tests for recent infections with HIV that have become widely used for measuring population patterns incidence of HIV. Across 13 different assays, sensitivity to detect recent infections ranged from 42-100% (median 89%). Specificity for detecting established infections was between 49.

Advances and future directions in HIV surveillance in low- and middle-income countries.

Purpose Of Review: To present recent advances in HIV/AIDS surveillance methods in low- and middle-income countries.

Recent Findings: From 2001 to 2008, 30 low- and middle-income countries implemented national population-based surveys with HIV testing. Antenatal clinic HIV sentinel surveillance sites in sub-Saharan Africa increased from just over 1000 in 2003-2004 to almost 2500 in 2005-2006, becoming more representative of rural areas.

Understanding the HIV epidemic in the Dominican Republic: a prevention success story in the Caribbean?

Objective: To analyze the general dynamics and trends of the HIV epidemic in the Dominican Republic (DR).

Methods: Thorough review of available HIV seroprevalence and sexual behavioral data from the DR.

Results: Multiple sources of data suggest that the DR's HIV epidemic has generally declined.

Adjusting HIV prevalence data from a program for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission for surveillance purposes in Uganda.

Objectives: To evaluate a method for adjusting estimates of HIV prevalence based on data from a program for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV infection for the potential bias attributable to refusal of PMTCT-related testing.

Methods: Age-specific logistic regression models were used to estimate the HIV risk coefficients for 10 predictor variables among women who accepted the PMTCT-related testing (n = 1874) at an antenatal clinic in northern Uganda. These risk coefficients were used to predict the prevalence among women who were not tested (n = 1719) and to adjust the PMTCT-based prevalence for nonparticipation bias.

Lessons learned in the conduct, validation, and interpretation of national population based HIV surveys.

In the past few years several countries have conducted national population-based HIV surveys. Survey methods, levels of participation bias from absence or refusal and lessons learned conducting such surveys are compared in four national population surveys: Mali, Kenya, Peru and Zambia. In Mali, Zambia, and Kenya, HIV testing of adult women and men was included in the national-level demographic and health surveys carried out regularly in these countries, whereas in Peru the national HIV survey targeted young people in 24 cities with populations over 50 000.