A Dynamical Systems Model for Improving Gestational Weight Gain Behavioral Interventions.

Excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) represents a major public health concern. In this paper, we present a dynamical systems model that describes how a behavioral intervention can influence weight gain during pregnancy. The model relies on the integration of a mechanistic energy balance with a dynamical behavioral model.

Dynamic energy-balance model predicting gestational weight gain.

Background: Gestational weight gains (GWGs) that exceed the 2009 Institute of Medicine recommended ranges increase risk of long-term postpartum weight retention; conversely, GWGs within the recommended ranges are more likely to result in positive maternal and fetal outcomes. Despite this evidence, recent epidemiologic studies have shown that the majority of pregnant women gain outside the target GWG ranges. A mathematical model that predicts GWG and energy intake could provide a clinical tool for setting precise goals during early pregnancy and continuous objective feedback throughout pregnancy.