Bridging the gap between subjective probability and probability judgments: The quantum sequential sampler.

One of the most important challenges in decision theory has been how to reconcile the normative expectations from Bayesian theory with the apparent fallacies that are common in probabilistic reasoning. Recently, Bayesian models have been driven by the insight that apparent fallacies are due to sampling errors or biases in estimating (Bayesian) probabilities. An alternative way to explain apparent fallacies is by invoking different probability rules, specifically the probability rules from quantum theory.

Beyond discrete-choice options.

While decision theories have evolved over the past five decades, their focus has largely been on choices among a limited number of discrete options, even though many real-world situations have a continuous-option space. Recently, theories have attempted to address decisions with continuous-option spaces, and several computational models have been proposed within the sequential sampling framework to explain how we make a decision in continuous-option space. This article aims to review the main attempts to understand decisions on continuous-option spaces, give an overview of applications of these types of decisions, and present puzzles to be addressed by future developments.

Integrating Categorization and Decision-Making.

Though individual categorization or decision processes have been studied separately in many previous investigations, few studies have investigated how they interact by using a two-stage task of first categorizing and then deciding. To address this issue, we investigated a categorization-decision task in two experiments. In both, participants were shown six faces varying in width, first asked to categorize the faces, and then decide a course of action for each face.

Quantum Cognition.

Uncertainty is an intrinsic part of life; most events, affairs, and questions are uncertain. A key problem in behavioral sciences is how the mind copes with uncertain information. Quantum probability theory offers a set of principles for inference, which align well with intuition about psychological processes in certain cases: cases when it appears that inference is contextual, the mental state changes as a result of previous judgments, or there is interference between different possibilities.

Beliefs, Actions, and Rationality in Strategical Decisions.

A puzzling finding from research on strategical decision making concerns the effect that predictions have on future actions. Simply stating a prediction about an opponent changes the total probability (pooled over predictions) of a player taking a future action compared to not stating any prediction. This is called an interference effect.

Temporal oscillations in preference strength provide evidence for an open system model of constructed preference.

The decision process is often conceptualized as a constructive process in which a decision maker accumulates information to form preferences about the choice options and ultimately make a response. Here we examine how these constructive processes unfold by tracking dynamic changes in preference strength. Across two experiments, we observed that mean preference strength systematically oscillated over time and found that eliciting a choice early in time strongly affected the pattern of preference oscillation later in time.

A distributional and dynamic theory of pricing and preference.

Theories that describe how people assign prices and make choices are typically based on the idea that both of these responses are derived from a common static, deterministic function used to assign utilities to options. However, preference reversals-where prices assigned to gambles conflict with preference orders elicited through binary choices-indicate that the response processes underlying these different methods of evaluation are more intricate. We address this issue by formulating a new computational model that assumes an initial bias or anchor that depends on type of price task (buying, selling, or certainty equivalents) and a stochastic evaluation accumulation process that depends on gamble attributes.

What are the appropriate axioms of rationality for reasoning under uncertainty with resource-constrained systems?

When constrained by limited resources, how do we choose axioms of rationality? The target article relies on Bayesian reasoning that encounter serious tractability problems. We propose another axiomatic foundation: quantum probability theory, which provides for less complex and more comprehensive descriptions. More generally, defining rationality in terms of axiomatic systems misses a key issue: rationality must be defined by humans facing vague information.

Testing the factor structure underlying behavior using joint cognitive models: Impulsivity in delay discounting and Cambridge gambling tasks.

Neurocognitive tasks are frequently used to assess disordered decision making, and cognitive models of these tasks can quantify performance in terms related to decision makers' underlying cognitive processes. In many cases, multiple cognitive models purport to describe similar processes, but it is difficult to evaluate whether they measure the same latent traits or processes. In this article, we develop methods for modeling behavior across multiple tasks by connecting cognitive model parameters to common latent constructs.

Comparison of Markov versus quantum dynamical models of human decision making.

What kind of dynamic decision process do humans use to make decisions? In this article, two different types of processes are reviewed and compared: Markov and quantum. Markov processes are based on the idea that at any given point in time a decision maker has a definite and specific level of support for available choice alternatives, and the dynamic decision process is represented by a single trajectory that traces out a path across time. When a response is requested, a person's decision or judgment is generated from the current location along the trajectory.

Primer on quantum cognition.

Quantum cognition is a new field in psychology, which is characterized by the application of quantum probability theory to human judgment and decision making behavior. This article provides an introduction that presents several examples to illustrate in a simple and concrete manner how to apply these principles to interesting psychological phenomena. Following each simple example, we present the general mathematical derivations and new predictions related to these applications.

Markov versus quantum dynamic models of belief change during evidence monitoring.

Two different dynamic models for belief change during evidence monitoring were evaluated: Markov and quantum. They were empirically tested with an experiment in which participants monitored evidence for an initial period of time, made a probability rating, then monitored more evidence, before making a second rating. The models were qualitatively tested by manipulating the time intervals in a manner that provided a test for interference effects of the first rating on the second.

A computational model of the Cambridge gambling task with applications to substance use disorders.

Background: Impulsivity is central to all forms of externalizing psychopathology, including problematic substance use. The Cambridge Gambling task (CGT) is a popular neurocognitive task used to assess impulsivity in both clinical and healthy populations. However, the traditional methods of analysis in the CGT do not fully capture the multiple cognitive mechanisms that give rise to impulsive behavior, which can lead to underpowered and difficult-to-interpret behavioral measures.

Cognitive and Neural Bases of Multi-Attribute, Multi-Alternative, Value-based Decisions.

Researchers have benefited from characterizing evidence-based decision making as a process involving sequential sampling. More recently, sequential sampling models have been applied to value-based decisions - decisions that involve examining preferences for multi-attribute, multi-alternative choices. The application of sequential sampling models to value-based decisions has helped researchers to account for the context effects associated with preferential choice tasks.

Hilbert space multidimensional theory.

A general theory of measurement context effects, called Hilbert space multidimensional (HSM) theory, is presented. A measurement context refers to a subset of psychological variables that an individual evaluates on a particular occasion. Different contexts are formed by evaluating different but possibly overlapping subsets of variables.

The detour problem in a stochastic environment: Tolman revisited.

We designed a grid world task to study human planning and re-planning behavior in an unknown stochastic environment. In our grid world, participants were asked to travel from a random starting point to a random goal position while maximizing their reward. Because they were not familiar with the environment, they needed to learn its characteristics from experience to plan optimally.

Neural implementation of operations used in quantum cognition.

Quantum probability theory has been successfully applied outside of physics to account for numerous findings from psychology regarding human judgement and decision making behavior. However, the researchers who have made these applications do not rely on the hypothesis that the brain is some type of quantum computer. This raises the question of how could the brain implement quantum algorithms other than quantum physical operations.

The rational status of quantum cognition.

Classic probability theory (CPT) is generally considered the rational way to make inferences, but there have been some empirical findings showing a divergence between reasoning and the principles of classical probability theory (CPT), inviting the conclusion that humans are irrational. Perhaps the most famous of these findings is the conjunction fallacy (CF). Recently, the CF has been shown consistent with the principles of an alternative probabilistic framework, quantum probability theory (QPT).

Learning to allocate limited time to decisions with different expected outcomes.

The goal of this article is to investigate how human participants allocate their limited time to decisions with different properties. We report the results of two behavioral experiments. In each trial of the experiments, the participant must accumulate noisy information to make a decision.

Neural Network-Based Solutions for Stochastic Optimal Control Using Path Integrals.

In this paper, an offline approximate dynamic programming approach using neural networks is proposed for solving a class of finite horizon stochastic optimal control problems. There are two approaches available in the literature, one based on stochastic maximum principle (SMP) formalism and the other based on solving the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. However, in the presence of noise, the SMP formalism becomes complex and results in having to solve a couple of backward stochastic differential equations.

Challenges and promises for translating computational tools into clinical practice.

Computational modeling and associated methods have greatly advanced our understanding of cognition and neurobiology underlying complex behaviors and psychiatric conditions. Yet, no computational methods have been successfully translated into clinical settings. This review discusses three major methodological and practical challenges (A.

Interference effects of categorization on decision making.

Many decision making tasks in life involve a categorization process, but the effects of categorization on subsequent decision making has rarely been studied. This issue was explored in three experiments (N=721), in which participants were shown a face stimulus on each trial and performed variations of categorization-decision tasks. On C-D trials, they categorized the stimulus and then made an action decision; on X-D trials, they were told the category and then made an action decision; on D-alone trials, they only made an action decision.

Computational modeling for addiction medicine: From cognitive models to clinical applications.

Decision-making tasks that have good ecological validity, such as simulated gambling tasks, are complex, and performance on these tasks represents a synthesis of several different underlying psychological processes, such as learning from experience, and motivational processes such as sensitivity to reward and punishment. Cognitive models can be used to break down performance on these tasks into constituent processes, which can then be assessed and studied in relation to clinical characteristics and neuroimaging outcomes. Whether it will be possible to improve treatment success by targeting these constituent processes more directly remains unexplored.

A random utility model of delay discounting and its application to people with externalizing psychopathology.

Previous studies have demonstrated that working memory capacity plays a central role in delay discounting in people with externalizing psychopathology. These studies used a hyperbolic discounting model, and its single parameter-a measure of delay discounting-was estimated using the standard method of searching for indifference points between intertemporal options. However, there are several problems with this approach.

The Dilution Effect and Information Integration in Perceptual Decision Making.

In cognitive science there is a seeming paradox: On the one hand, studies of human judgment and decision making have repeatedly shown that people systematically violate optimal behavior when integrating information from multiple sources. On the other hand, optimal models, often Bayesian, have been successful at accounting for information integration in fields such as categorization, memory, and perception. This apparent conflict could be due, in part, to different materials and designs that lead to differences in the nature of processing.