The predictability of the epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by back-calculation methods.

We present a back-calculation analysis of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) epidemic in the UK to estimate the number of infected individuals and to explore the likely future incidence of the disease. The main features of the model are that the hazard of infection was assumed proportional to the incidence of BSE in the UK with allowance for precautionary control measures taken in 1988 and in 1996, and that the incubation period distribution of vCJD follows an offset generalized F distribution. Our results indicate that current the numbers of cases with onset up to 31 December 2000 data are broadly compatible with numbers of primary infections ranging from a few hundred to several million.

The incubation period of kuru.

Background: Kuru is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy that was identified in Papua New Guinea in the late 1950s. Several thousand cases of the disease occurred during a period of several decades. Epidemiologic investigations implicated ritual endocannibalistic funeral feasts as the likely route through which the infectious agent was spread.

Analysis of the geographical distribution of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in France between 1992 and 1998.

Background: Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a rare fatal dementia caused by a transmissible agent. However, the mechanism leading to the disease is unknown in the majority of cases. The presence of geographically clustered cases might indicate a common environmental exposure to the transmissible agent, or case-to-case transmission of the agent.