Publications by authors named "Jeroen P van der Sluijs"

The accumulating scientific evidence on global insect and pollinator decline is fuelling calls for pollinator conservation policies. A broad range of regulating and incentivising policies is undoubtedly needed to address the diverse threats to pollinator abundance and diversity, but implementing policies and regulations is beset by socio-political challenges. Lessons could be learned from the past and current applications of concepts central to biodiversity conservation.

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In addressing pandemics, science has never seemed more needed and useful, while at the same time limited and powerless. The existing contract between science and society is falling apart. A new covenant is urgently needed to navigate the days ahead.

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Large-scale use of the persistent and potent neonicotinoid and fipronil insecticides has raised concerns about risks to ecosystem functions provided by a wide range of species and environments affected by these insecticides. The concept of ecosystem services is widely used in decision making in the context of valuing the service potentials, benefits, and use values that well-functioning ecosystems provide to humans and the biosphere and, as an endpoint (value to be protected), in ecological risk assessment of chemicals. Neonicotinoid insecticides are frequently detected in soil and water and are also found in air, as dust particles during sowing of crops and aerosols during spraying.

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In regulatory toxicology, quality assessment of in vivo studies is a critical step for assessing chemical risks. It is crucial for preserving public health studies that are considered suitable for regulating chemicals are robust. Current procedures for conducting quality assessments in safety agencies are not structured, clear or consistent.

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Epidemiology and quantitative microbiological risk assessment are disciplines in which the same public health measures are estimated, but results differ frequently. If large, these differences can confuse public health policymakers. This article aims to identify uncertainty sources that explain apparent differences in estimates for Campylobacter spp.

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Imidacloprid is one of the most widely used insecticides in the world. Its concentration in surface water exceeds the water quality norms in many parts of the Netherlands. Several studies have demonstrated harmful effects of this neonicotinoid to a wide range of non-target species.

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Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies.

Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy.

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About a decade ago, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) unwittingly embarked on a transition from a technocratic model of science advising to the paradigm of "post-normal science" (PNS). In response to a scandal around uncertainty management in 1999, a Guidance for "Uncertainty Assessment and Communication" was developed with advice from the initiators of the PNS concept and was introduced in 2003. This was followed in 2007 by a "Stakeholder Participation" Guidance.

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Background: Environmental health impact assessments often have to deal with substantial uncertainties. Typically, the knowledge-base is limited with incomplete, or inconsistent evidence and missing or ambiguous data. Consulting experts can help to identify and address uncertainties.

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Article Synopsis
  • Exposure to tiny particles in the air (called ultrafine particles or UFP) might cause health problems, but it's not as clear as with larger particles.
  • A group of experts met to discuss if UFP could directly harm health and how it might lead to heart issues.
  • Most experts believe that short-term exposure to UFP is pretty likely to cause serious health effects, while the risks from long-term exposure are somewhat lower but still concerning.
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Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) combine the number of people affected by disease or mortality in a population and the duration and severity of their condition into one number. The environmental burden of disease is the number of DALYs that can be attributed to environmental factors. Environmental burden of disease estimates enable policy makers to evaluate, compare and prioritize dissimilar environmental health problems or interventions.

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The social construction of uncertainty plays a major role in environmental decision-making. Methods for assessing this aspect of scientific knowledge quality are lacking. Our analysis of the French debate on the risk that the insecticide Gaucho (active substance: imidacloprid) forms for honeybees is particularly relevant to this theoretical and practical gap.

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We demonstrate an innovative approach to uncertainty assessment known as the NUSAP system, to assess qualitative and quantitative uncertainty for the case of emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) from paint in The Netherlands. Using expert elicitation, we identified key sources of error, critical assumptions, and bias in the monitoring process. We assessed pedigree and probabilistic uncertainty of all input quantities.

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This article discusses recent experiences with the Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system for multidimensional uncertainty assessment, based on four case studies that vary in complexity. We show that the NUSAP method is applicable not only to relatively simple calculation schemes but also to complex models in a meaningful way and that NUSAP is useful to assess not only parameter uncertainty but also (model) assumptions. A diagnostic diagram can be used to synthesize results of quantitative analysis of parameter sensitivity and qualitative review (pedigree analysis) of parameter strength.

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