Predicting hospital aggression in secure psychiatric care.

Background: Risk assessment instruments have become a preferred means for predicting future aggression, claiming to predict long-term aggression risk.

Aims: To investigate the predictive value over 12 months and 4 years of two commonly applied instruments (Historical, Clinical and Risk Management - 20 (HCR-20) and Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG)).

Method: Participants were adult male psychiatric patients detained in a high secure hospital.