The Threat and Response to Infectious Diseases (Revised).

The threat from microorganisms is complex, and the approaches for reducing the challenges the world is facing are also multifaceted, but a combination approach including several simple steps can make a difference and reduce morbidity and mortality and the economic cost of fighting infectious diseases. This paper discusses the continually evolving infectious disease landscape, contributing factors in the rise of the threat, reasons for optimism, and the policies, technologies, actions, and institutions that might be harnessed to further reduce the dangers introduced by pathogens. It builds upon and updates the work of other authors that have recognized the dangers of emerging and re-emerging pathogens and have explored and documented potential solutions.

A model for a smallpox-vaccination policy.

Background: The new reality of biologic terrorism and warfare has ignited a debate about whether to reintroduce smallpox vaccination.

Methods: We developed scenarios of smallpox attacks and built a stochastic model of outcomes under various control policies. We conducted a systematic literature review and estimated model parameters on the basis of European and North American outbreaks since World War II.