The potential use of mass timber in mid-to high-rise construction and the associated carbon benefits in the United States.

Nonresidential and mid- to high-rise multifamily residential structures in the United States currently use little wood per unit floor area installed, because earlier building codes lacked provisions for structural wood use in those types of buildings. However, revisions to the International Building Code allow for increased wood use in the form of mass timber, as structural and fire safety concerns have been addressed through new science-based design standards and through newly specified construction materials and measures. This study used multiple models to describe alternative futures for new construction, mass timber adoption rates, and the associated carbon benefits in higher than three-story buildings in the United States.

The association between tree planting and mortality: A natural experiment and cost-benefit analysis.

Several recent longitudinal studies have found that exposure to the natural environment is associated with lower non-accidental mortality. However, most of these studies used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an exposure metric; and because NDVI might not be sensitive enough to adequately capture changes in urban vegetation, these studies might lack true longitudinal variation in exposure. Therefore, we used a natural experiment to assess the impact of 30 years of tree planting by the nonprofit Friends of Trees on non-accidental, cardiovascular, lower-respiratory, and accidental mortality in Portland, Oregon (mortality data were provided by the Oregon Health Authority).

Housing starts and the associated wood products carbon storage by county by Shared Socioeconomic Pathway in the United States.

Harvested wood products found in the built environment are an important carbon sink, helping to mitigate climate change, and their trends in use are determined by economic and demographic factors, which vary spatially. Spatially detailed projections of construction and stored carbon are needed for industry and public decision making, including for appreciating trends in values at risk from catastrophic disturbances. We specify econometric models of single-family and multifamily housing starts by U.

Shortcomings of the normalized difference vegetation index as an exposure metric.

The health benefits of exposure to trees and plants is a rapidly expanding field of study. Research has shown that exposure is associated with improvements in a wide range of health outcomes including cardiovascular disease, birth outcomes, respiratory disease, cancer, mental health and all-cause mortality. One of the challenges that these studies face is characterizing participants' exposure to trees and plants.

The politics of urban trees: Tree planting is associated with gentrification in Portland, Oregon.

This study evaluated the hypothesis that urban-tree planting increases neighborhood gentrification in Portland, Oregon. We defined gentrification as an increase in the median sales price of single-family homes in a Census tract compared to other tracts in the city after accounting for differences in the housing stock such as house size and number of bathrooms. We used tree-planting data from the non-profit Friends of Trees, who have planted 57,985 yard and street trees in Portland (1990-2019).

Spatiotemporal downscaling of global population and income scenarios for the United States.

Downscaled climate projections need to be linked to downscaled projections of population and economic growth to fully develop implications for land, natural resources, and ecosystems for future scenarios. We develop an empirical spatiotemporal approach for jointly projecting population and income at the county scale in the United States that is consistent with neoclassical economic growth theory and overlapping labor markets and that accounts for labor migration and spatial spillovers. Downscaled projections generated for the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways used to support global scenario analysis generally show growth focused around relatively few centers especially in the southeast and western regions, with some areas in the Midwest and northeast experiencing population declines.

Projecting global planted forest area developments and the associated impacts on global forest product markets.

Planted forests are a rising share of total forests globally and an increasingly important source of timber product output, affecting national and global markets. We estimated econometric models of planted forest area by OECD and non-OECD country groups that control for economic, institutional and environmental policies likely to influence future changes in planted forest area. The models are then used to project planted forest area over next 55 years for 180 countries under five alternative scenarios of global socio-economic changes, represented in shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), adjunct products emerging from the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of Tribal land units in the United States.

Research shows that some categories of human-ignited wildfires might be forecastable, due to their temporal clustering, with the possibility that resources could be pre-deployed to help reduce the incidence of such wildfires. We estimated several kinds of incendiary and other human-ignited wildfire forecast models at the weekly time step for tribal land units in the United States, evaluating their forecast skill out of sample. Analyses show that an Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model of both incendiary and non-incendiary human-ignited wildfires is more accurate out of sample compared to alternatives, and the simplest of the ACP models performed the best.

Is tree loss associated with cardiovascular-disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative? A natural experiment.

Data from the Women's Health Initiative were used to quantify the relationship between the loss of trees to an invasive forest pest-the emerald ash borer-and cardiovascular disease. We estimated a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazards model of time to cardiovascular disease, adjusting for confounders. We defined the incidence of cardiovascular disease as acute myocardial infarction requiring overnight hospitalization, silent MI determined from serial electrocardiograms, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke, or death from coronary heart disease.

The relationship between trees and human health: evidence from the spread of the emerald ash borer.

Background: Several recent studies have identified a relationship between the natural environment and improved health outcomes. However, for practical reasons, most have been observational, cross-sectional studies.

Purpose: A natural experiment, which provides stronger evidence of causality, was used to test whether a major change to the natural environment-the loss of 100 million trees to the emerald ash borer, an invasive forest pest-has influenced mortality related to cardiovascular and lower-respiratory diseases.