Analysis of COVID-19 mathematical model for predicting the impact of control measures in Rwanda.

This paper shows the impact of control measures on the predictive COVID-19 mathematical model in Rwanda through sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number . We have introduced different levels of the control measures in the model, precisely, 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0% and studied their effects on the variation of the model variables. The results from numerical simulations reveal that the more the adherence to the control measures at the percentage of 90%, 80%, 60%, 40%, 20%, 0%, the more the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalized and deaths reduces which indicates the reduction of the spread of the pandemic in Rwanda.

Compartmental mathematical modelling of dynamic transmission of COVID-19 in Rwanda.

Objectives: Mathematical modelling is of interest to study the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and models such as SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) have been considered. This article describes the development of a compartmental transmission network model - Susceptible-Exposed-Quarantine-Infectious-Infectious, undetected-Infectious, home-based care-Hospitalized-Vaccinated-Recovered-Dead - to simulate the dynamics of COVID-19 in order to account for specific measures put into place by the Government of Rwanda to prevent further spread of the disease.

Methods: The compartments of this model are connected by parameters, some of which are known from the literature, and others are estimated from available data using the least squares method.