Complex eco-evolutionary responses of a foundational coastal marsh plant to global change.

Predicting the fate of coastal marshes requires understanding how plants respond to rapid environmental change. Environmental change can elicit shifts in trait variation attributable to phenotypic plasticity and act as selective agents to shift trait means, resulting in rapid evolution. Comparably, less is known about the potential for responses to reflect the evolution of trait plasticity.

Assessing opportunities and inequities in undergraduate ecological forecasting education.

Conducting ecological research in a way that addresses complex, real-world problems requires a diverse, interdisciplinary and quantitatively trained ecology and environmental science workforce. This begins with equitably training students in ecology, interdisciplinary science, and quantitative skills at the undergraduate level. Understanding the current undergraduate curriculum landscape in ecology and environmental sciences allows for targeted interventions to improve equitable educational opportunities.

Accounting for variability when resurrecting dormant propagules substantiates their use in eco-evolutionary studies.

There has been a steady rise in the use of dormant propagules to study biotic responses to environmental change over time. This is particularly important for organisms that strongly mediate ecosystem processes, as changes in their traits over time can provide a unique snapshot into the structure and function of ecosystems from decades to millennia in the past. Understanding sources of bias and variation is a challenge in the field of resurrection ecology, including those that arise because often-used measurements like seed germination success are imperfect indicators of propagule viability.

A century-long record of plant evolution reconstructed from a coastal marsh seed bank.

Evidence is mounting that climate-driven shifts in environmental conditions can elicit organismal evolution, yet there are sparingly few long-term records that document the tempo and progression of responses, particularly for plants capable of transforming ecosystems. In this study, we "resurrected" cohorts of a foundational coastal marsh sedge () from a time-stratified seed bank to reconstruct a century-long record of heritable variation in response to salinity exposure. Common-garden experiments revealed that exhibits heritable variation in phenotypic traits and biomass-based measures of salinity tolerance.

Increased water use efficiency leads to decreased precipitation sensitivity of tree growth, but is offset by high temperatures.

Both increases in temperature and changes in precipitation may limit future tree growth, but rising atmospheric CO could offset some of these stressors through increased plant Water Use Efficiency (WUE). The net balance between the negative impacts of climate change and positive effects of CO on tree growth is crucial for ecotones, where increased climate stress could drive mortality and shifts in range. Here, we quantify the effects of climate, stand structure, and rising CO on both annual tree-ring growth increment and intrinsic WUE (iWUE) at a savanna-forest boundary in the Upper Midwest United States.

The forests of the midwestern United States at Euro-American settlement: Spatial and physical structure based on contemporaneous survey data.

We present gridded 8 km-resolution data products of the estimated stem density, basal area, and biomass of tree taxa at Euro-American settlement of the midwestern United States during the middle to late 19th century for the states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. The data come from settlement-era Public Land Survey (PLS) data (ca. 0.

Forest responses to last-millennium hydroclimate variability are governed by spatial variations in ecosystem sensitivity.

Forecasts of future forest change are governed by ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, but ecosystem model projections are under-constrained by data at multidecadal and longer timescales. Here, we quantify ecosystem sensitivity to centennial-scale hydroclimate variability, by comparing dendroclimatic and pollen-inferred reconstructions of drought, forest composition and biomass for the last millennium with five ecosystem model simulations. In both observations and models, spatial patterns in ecosystem responses to hydroclimate variability are strongly governed by ecosystem sensitivity rather than climate exposure.

Quantifying trends and uncertainty in prehistoric forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States.

Forest ecosystems in eastern North America have been in flux for the last several thousand years, well before Euro-American land clearance and the 20th-century onset of anthropogenic climate change. However, the magnitude and uncertainty of prehistoric vegetation change have been difficult to quantify because of the multiple ecological, dispersal, and sedimentary processes that govern the relationship between forest composition and fossil pollen assemblages. Here we extend STEPPS, a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal pollen-vegetation model, to estimate changes in forest composition in the upper Midwestern United States from about 2,100 to 300 yr ago.

A century of genetic variation inferred from a persistent soil-stored seed bank.

Stratigraphic accretion of dormant propagules in soil can result in natural archives useful for studying ecological and evolutionary responses to environmental change. Few attempts have been made, however, to use soil-stored seed banks as natural archives, in part because of concerns over nonrandom attrition and mixed stratification. Here, we examine the persistent seed bank of , a foundational brackish marsh sedge, to determine whether it can serve as a resource for reconstructing historical records of demographic and population genetic variation.

Ice ages leave genetic diversity 'hotspots' in Europe but not in Eastern North America.

After the last glacial cycle, temperate European trees migrated northward, experiencing genetic bottlenecks and founder effects, which left high haplotype endemism in southern populations and clines in genetic diversity northward. These patterns are thought to be ubiquitous across temperate forests, and are therefore used to anticipate the potential genetic consequences of future warming. We compared existing and new phylogeographic data sets (chloroplast DNA) from 14 woody taxa in Eastern North America (ENA) to data sets from 21 ecologically similar European species to test for common impacts of Quaternary climate swings on genetic diversity across diverse taxa and between continents.

Correction: Statistically-Estimated Tree Composition for the Northeastern United States at Euro-American Settlement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.

Emergent climate and CO sensitivities of net primary productivity in ecosystem models do not agree with empirical data in temperate forests of eastern North America.

Ecosystem models show divergent responses of the terrestrial carbon cycle to global change over the next century. Individual model evaluation and multimodel comparisons with data have largely focused on individual processes at subannual to decadal scales. Thus far, data-based evaluations of emergent ecosystem responses to climate and CO at multidecadal and centennial timescales have been rare.

Novel and Lost Forests in the Upper Midwestern United States, from New Estimates of Settlement-Era Composition, Stem Density, and Biomass.

Background: EuroAmerican land-use and its legacies have transformed forest structure and composition across the United States (US). More accurate reconstructions of historical states are critical to understanding the processes governing past, current, and future forest dynamics. Here we present new gridded (8x8km) reconstructions of pre-settlement (1800s) forest composition and structure from the upper Midwestern US (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and most of Michigan), using 19th Century Public Land Survey System (PLSS), with estimates of relative composition, above-ground biomass, stem density, and basal area for 28 tree types.

Statistically-Estimated Tree Composition for the Northeastern United States at Euro-American Settlement.

We present a gridded 8 km-resolution data product of the estimated composition of tree taxa at the time of Euro-American settlement of the northeastern United States and the statistical methodology used to produce the product from trees recorded by land surveyors. Composition is defined as the proportion of stems larger than approximately 20 cm diameter at breast height for 22 tree taxa, generally at the genus level. The data come from settlement-era public survey records that are transcribed and then aggregated spatially, giving count data.

Habitat differences influence genetic impacts of human land use on the American beech (Fagus grandifolia).

Natural reforestation after regional forest clearance is a globally common land-use sequence. The genetic recovery of tree populations in these recolonized forests may depend on the biogeographic setting of the landscape, for instance whether they are in the core or in the marginal part of the species' range. Using data from 501 individuals genotyped across 7 microsatellites, we investigated whether regional differences in habitat quality affected the recovery of genetic variation in a wind-pollinated tree species, American beech (Fagus grandifolia) in Massachusetts.

Ancient DNA from lake sediments: bridging the gap between paleoecology and genetics.

Background: Quaternary plant ecology in much of the world has historically relied on morphological identification of macro- and microfossils from sediments of small freshwater lakes. Here, we report new protocols that reliably yield DNA sequence data from Holocene plant macrofossils and bulk lake sediment used to infer ecological change. This will allow changes in census populations, estimated from fossils and associated sediment, to be directly associated with population genetic changes.

Range-wide distribution of genetic diversity in the North American tree Juglans cinerea: a product of range shifts, not ecological marginality or recent population decline.

The spatial distribution of genetic diversity is a product of recent and historical ecological processes, as well as anthropogenic activities. A current challenge in population and conservation genetics is to disentangle the relative effects of these processes, as a first step in predicting population response to future environmental change. In this investigation, we compare the influence of contemporary population decline, contemporary ecological marginality and postglacial range shifts.

Mapping Ancient Forests: Bayesian Inference for Spatio-temporal Trends in Forest Composition Using the Fossil Pollen Proxy Record.

Ecologists use the relative abundance of fossil pollen in sediments to estimate how tree species abundances change over space and time. To predict historical forest composition and quantify the available information, we build a Bayesian hierarchical model of forest composition in central New England, USA, based on pollen in a network of ponds. The critical relationships between abundances of taxa in the pollen record and abundances as actual vegetation are estimated for the modern and colonial periods, for which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available, based on a latent multivariate spatial process representing forest composition.

Multidimensional evaluation of managed relocation.

Managed relocation (MR) has rapidly emerged as a potential intervention strategy in the toolbox of biodiversity management under climate change. Previous authors have suggested that MR (also referred to as assisted colonization, assisted migration, or assisted translocation) could be a last-alternative option after interrogating a linear decision tree. We argue that numerous interacting and value-laden considerations demand a more inclusive strategy for evaluating MR.

Comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America.

Regional phylogeographical studies involving co-distributed animal and plant species have been conducted for several areas, most notably for Europe and the Pacific Northwest of North America. Until recently, phylogeographical studies in unglaciated eastern North America have been largely limited to animals. As more studies emerge for diverse lineages (including plants), it seems timely to assess the phylogeography across this region: (i) comparing and contrasting the patterns seen in plants and animals; (ii) assessing the extent of pseudocongruence; and (iii) discussing the potential applications of regional phylogeography to issues in ecology, such as response to climatic change.

Stability of forest biodiversity.

Two hypotheses to explain potentially high forest biodiversity have different implications for the number and kinds of species that can coexist and the potential loss of biodiversity in the absence of speciation. The first hypothesis involves stabilizing mechanisms, which include tradeoffs between species in terms of their capacities to disperse to sites where competition is weak, to exploit abundant resources effectively and to compete for scarce resources. Stabilization results because competitors thrive at different times and places.