Predictive modelling of the UK physician associate supply: 2014-2038.

Introduction: The NHS Long Term Workforce Plan aims for 10,000 physician associates (PAs, formerly physician assistants) by 2036/7. This article uses three modelling approaches to project the UK PA supply from a baseline of 2014-2021 through to 2038 to forecast the profession's growth.

Methods: The number of cClinically available PAs' (cPAs; qualified PAs either working clinically or seeking clinical employment) was estimated using raw data from the 2014-2021 Faculty of Physician Associates censuses.