US Tobacco 21 Policies and Potential Mortality Reductions by State.

Importance: Research shows that Tobacco 21 (T21) policies with a minimum legal access age for tobacco products of 21 years reduce smoking, yet their impact varies across US states due to differences in smoking behaviors, mortality rates, and policy coverage.

Objective: To quantify potential reductions in smoking-attributable mortality associated with Tobacco 21 policies for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC.

Design, Setting, And Participants: The Cancer Intervention Surveillance and Modeling Network (CISNET) Tobacco Control Policy Model of smoking was used with detailed state-specific data on smoking initiation, smoking cessation and mortality rates as they vary by age, gender, and birth cohort for 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

Latent transition analysis of use frequencies for multiple nicotine and tobacco products among US adults.

Background: Given the many nicotine and tobacco products in use, studies of the interdependence of use patterns and transitions are needed.

Methods: Using Waves 1-4 of the PATH Study, we analyzed latent transitions among adults who ever regularly used nicotine or tobacco products at Wave 1 to identify latent use states (n = 12,358) and estimated one-wave transition probabilities. Multinomial logistic regression identified demographic factors associated with transitions.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.

Introduction: The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the lung injuries outbreak, flavour bans, Tobacco 21 and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28 061 adults in waves 4-5 (2017-2019) and 24 584 adults in waves 5-6 (2019-2021), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation and switching products for each period overall and by age group.

Results: Cigarette initiation among adults who never used either product decreased from 2017-2019 to 2019-2021, but ENDS initiation did not significantly change.

Smoking patterns by birth cohort in Argentina: an age-period-cohort population-based modeling study.

Background: Argentina's smoking rates remain high. We aim to estimate Argentina age-specific histories of smoking initiation, cessation, prevalence, and intensity by birth-cohort to inform policy interventions.

Methods: Modeling study.

Responses to Real-World and Hypothetical Menthol Flavor Bans Among US Young Adults Who Smoke Menthol Cigarettes.

Introduction: Menthol cigarette bans have been implemented in some US states and localities, and a federal ban is being proposed by the FDA. This study asks how young adults who use menthol cigarettes respond to changes in menthol cigarette availability.

Aims And Methods: An online survey of young adults ages 18-34 who reported smoking menthol cigarettes on ≥7 of 30 days around Thanksgiving 2019 (n = 734), oversampling Massachusetts-the first state with a menthol ban.

Responses to Real-World and Hypothetical E-Cigarette Flavor Bans Among US Young Adults Who Use Flavored E-Cigarettes.

Introduction: E-cigarette flavor bans could reduce or exacerbate population health harms. To determine how US e-cigarette flavor restrictions might influence tobacco use behavior, this study assesses responses to real-world and hypothetical flavor bans among young adults who use flavored e-cigarettes.

Aims And Methods: An online, national survey of young adults ages 18-34 who use flavored e-cigarettes was conducted in 2021 (n = 1253), oversampling states affected by e-cigarette flavor restrictions.

The smoking and vaping model, A user-friendly model for examining the country-specific impact of nicotine VAPING product use: application to Germany.

Background: Simulation models play an increasingly important role in tobacco control. Models examining the impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) and smoking tend to be highly specialized and inaccessible. We present the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM),a user-friendly cohort-based simulation model, adaptable to any country, that projects the public health impact of smokers switching to NVPs.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of adults in the PATH Study in 2017-2019 vs 2019-2021.

Introduction: The use of cigarettes and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) has likely changed since 2019 with the rise of pods and disposables, the outbreak of lung injuries related to vaping THC, flavor bans, and the COVID pandemic. We analyzed patterns of initiation, cessation, and transitions between cigarettes, ENDS, and dual use before and after 2019.

Methods: Using the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study, we applied a multistate transition model to 28,061 adults in Waves 4-5 (2017-19) and 24,751 adults in Waves 5-6 (2019-21), estimating transition rates for initiation, cessation, and switching products for each period overall and by age group.

Changing patterns of cigarette and ENDS transitions in the USA: a multistate transition analysis of youth and adults in the PATH Study in 2015-2017 vs 2017-2019.

Introduction: It is unknown how recent changes in the tobacco product marketplace have impacted transitions in cigarette and electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) use.

Methods: A multistate transition model was applied to 24 242 adults and 12 067 youth in waves 2-4 (2015-2017) and 28 061 adults and 12 538 youth in waves 4 and 5 (2017-2019) of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study. Transition rates for initiation, cessation and product transitions were estimated in multivariable models, accounting for gender, age group, race/ethnicity and daily versus non-daily product use.

Summary and Concluding Remarks: Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories.

The Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) Lung Working Group age-period-cohort methodology to study smoking patterns can be applied to tackle important issues in tobacco control and public health. This paper summarizes the analyses of smoking patterns in the U.S.

Smoking Disparities by Level of Educational Attainment and Birth Cohort in the U.S.

Introduction: Little is known about how U.S. smoking patterns of initiation, cessation, and intensity vary by birth cohort across education levels or how these patterns may be driven by other demographic characteristics.

Using the Past to Understand the Future of U.S. and Global Smoking Disparities: A Birth Cohort Perspective.

U.S. smoking-related disparities persist, but data evaluating how smoking patterns across diverse populations have changed by birth cohort are lacking.

Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories in Brazil.

Introduction: Smoking prevalence has decreased considerably in Brazil from 34.8% in 1989 to 12.6% in 2019 owing to the implementation of strong tobacco control policies.

Mortality Relative Risks by Smoking, Race/Ethnicity, and Education.

Introduction: The impact of cigarette smoking on mortality is well studied, with estimates of the relative mortality risks for the overall population widely available. However, age-specific mortality estimates for different sociodemographic groups in the U.S.

Smoking Histories by State in the U.S.

Introduction: Smoking rates across U.S. states have declined at different rates over time because some states have progressive tobacco control policies, whereas others have yet to adopt them.

Patterns of Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Histories by Race and Ethnicity in the U.S.

Introduction: U.S. smoking prevalence varies greatly by race/ethnicity.

Birth Cohort‒Specific Smoking Patterns by Family Income in the U.S.

Introduction: In the U.S., low-income individuals generally smoke more than high-income individuals.

Modeling cigarette smoking disparities between people with and without serious psychological distress in the US, 1997-2100.

Cigarette smoking rates are significantly higher among people with serious psychological distress (SPD) compared to the general population. US simulation models that project future smoking disparities by SPD status could inform policy interventions, but have not been developed. We calibrated two compartmental models to the National Health Interview Survey 1997-2018 for populations with and without SPD, calculating smoking prevalence, mortality, and life-years lost by SPD status under different scenarios from 2023 to 2100.

Estimated Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking-Attributable Mortality Associated With Graphic Health Warnings on Cigarette Packages in the US From 2022 to 2100.

Importance: Starting in 2022, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) plans to require all cigarette packages in the US to display graphic health warnings depicting health harms associated with smoking. The FDA originally planned to implement such warnings in 2012, but tobacco industry litigation delayed the effort.

Objective: To assess the estimated population health outcomes associated with a policy requiring graphic health warnings on cigarette packages in the US and with a 10-year delay in implementation.

The Potential Impact of Widespread Cessation Treatment for Smokers With Depression.

Introduction: Experts recommend integrating smoking-cessation treatments within U.S. mental health settings, but the population health benefits of doing so have not been estimated.

An Expert Elicitation on the Effects of a Ban on Menthol Cigarettes and Cigars in the United States.

Introduction: The US Food and Drug Administration announced its intention to ban menthol in cigarettes. However, information is needed on how a federal ban would affect population health.

Aims And Methods: We conducted an expert elicitation to gauge the impact of a menthol cigarette and cigar ban in the United States.

US Nicotine Vaping Product Simulation Model: The Effect of Vaping and Tobacco Control Policies on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths.

The public health impact of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is subject to a complex set of uncertain transitions between NVP and cigarette use. Instead, we apply an indirect method to gauge the impact of NVP use on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) using the well-established tobacco control policy simulation model. Upon validating the model before NVPs were more widely used, we project a No-NVP (i.

Biomarkers of Potential Harm among Adult Cigarette and Smokeless Tobacco Users in the PATH Study Wave 1 (2013-2014): A Cross-sectional Analysis.

Background: While smokeless tobacco (ST) causes oral cancer and is associated with cardiovascular diseases, less is known about how its effects differ from other tobacco use. Biomarkers of potential harm (BOPH) can measure short-term health effects such as inflammation and oxidative stress.

Methods: We compared BOPH concentrations [IL6, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (sICAM-1), and F2-isoprostane] across 3,460 adults in wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health study (2013-2014) by tobacco use groups: primary ST users (current exclusive ST use among never smokers), secondary ST users (current exclusive ST use among former smokers), exclusive cigarette smokers, dual users of ST and cigarettes, former smokers, and never tobacco users.

Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model.

Background: Nicotine vaping products (NVPs) are increasingly popular worldwide. They may provide public health benefits if used as a substitute for smoking, but may create public health harms if used as a gateway to smoking or to discourage smoking cessation. This paper presents the Smoking and Vaping Model (SAVM), a user-friendly model which estimates the public health implications of NVPs in the USA.