Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: case study of Malawi.

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios.

The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries.

The Russia-Ukraine war's impact on food, fuel, and fertilizer prices is a major concern for global poverty and food insecurity. Despite numerous studies and editorials on the risks and challenges of the crisis, there is little quantitative analysis of its consequences for developing countries. We use national economywide models to measure the near-term impacts of the crisis on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity in 19 countries.

The short-term economywide impacts of COVID-19 in Africa: Insights from Ethiopia.

The COVID-19 impact on the global economy combined with partial lockdown measures in Ethiopia represents a large, unprecedented shock to the country's economy. The social accounting matrix (SAM) multiplier model, built on the most up-to-date SAM (2017) for Ethiopia, shows that the country suffered a 14.3% loss in GDP (Birr 43.

The Economic Costs of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a Simulation Exercise for Ghana.

Globally, countries have resorted to social distancing, travel restrictions and economic lockdowns to reduce transmission of COVID-19. The socioeconomic costs of these blunt measures are expected to be high, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where many live hand-to-mouth and lack social safety nets. Social Accounting Matrix multiplier model results show that Ghana's urban lockdown, although in force for only three weeks in April 2020, has likely caused GDP to fall by 27.

Adapting to climate change: an integrated biophysical and economic assessment for Mozambique.

Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models.

HIV/AIDS, growth and poverty in KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa: an integrated survey, demographic and economy-wide analysis.

Background: This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the KwaZulu-Natal province and the rest of South Africa.

Methods: We extended previous studies by employing: an integrated analytical framework that combined firm surveys of workers' HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produced both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economy-wide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment.

Macroeconomic and household-level impacts of HIV/AIDS in Botswana.

Objective: To measure the impact of HIV/AIDS on economic growth and poverty in Botswana and estimate how providing treatment can mitigate its effects.

Methods: Demographic and financial projections were combined with economic simulation models, including a macroeconomic growth model and a macro-microeconomic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model.

Results: HIV/AIDS significantly reduces economic growth and increases household poverty.